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3Q09 Egypt Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013
IE Market Research Corp, Oct 2009, Pages: 118
Total wireless subscribers in Egypt to reach 77.1 million in 2013 with ECMS (Mobinil)'s market share declining to 43.7%
Mobile Operator Forecast on Egypt provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for Egypt’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 1Q2011. Operators covered for Egypt include: The Egyptian Company for Mobile Services (Mobinil), Vodafone Group Plc, and Etisalat (Emirates Telecommunications Corporation). Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Executive Summary
Subscriber growth in Egypt's wireless market remains strong
+36.3% industry average subscriber growth in 1Q.2009
ARPUs continue declining in Egypt's mobile operator space
-21.9% industry average ARPU growth 1Q.2009
Minutes of Use per Subscriber are increasing at ECMS
The industry average MOU/Sub growth of +1.5% in 1Q.2009
Both ECMS and Vodafone enjoyed double-digit EBITDA growth rates in the latest quarter
+21.4% industry-average EBITDA growth in 1Q.2009
So what is Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in Egypt to reach 77.1 million in 2013
- We forecast that total wireless subscribers in Egypt will increase from 40.9 million in 2008 to 77.1 million in 2013.
- ECMS (Mobinil) will continue to be the largest mobile operator in Egypt. Our model predicts that ECMS (Mobinil)'s number of subscribers will increase from 20.1 million in 2008 to 33.7 million in 2013.
- We also expect that, by the end of 2013, Vodafone will have 29.8 million subscribers and Etisalat will have 13.6 million subscribers.
Vodafone and ECMS (Mobinil) will be losing market shares to Etisalat over the next five years
- Our model predicts that ECMS's share of subscribers will decline from 49.2% in 2008 to 43.7% in 2013.
- Vodafone's subscriber market share will also decline from its 43.1% in 2008 to 38.6% in 2013.
- Instead, we forecast that Etisalat's subscriber market share will rise from 7.7% in 2008 to 17.6% in 2013.
ARPUs in Egypt will be declining from 2009 to 2013
- Our forecasting model predicts that ECMS (Mobinil) and Vodafone will see their ARPU levels decline over the next five years.
- We forecast that Vodafone's ARPU level will decline from EGP 59.58 to EGP 50.73 while ECMS's ARPU declines from EGP 46.00 to EGP 43.20 over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
Profitability at Vodafone will improve over the next five years
- We forecast that Vodafone's EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will improve from 47.8% in 2008 to 51.0% in 2013.
- On the other hand, we expect that ECMS's EBITDA margin will decline from 46.8% in 2008 to 45.7% in 2013.
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