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3Q09 Indonesia Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013
IE Market Research Corp, Oct 2009, Pages: 118
Total wireless subscribers in Indonesia to rise to 204 million in 2013 with Telkomsel's market share increasing to 54.4%
Mobile Operator Forecast on Indonesia provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for Indonesia’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 1Q2011. Operators covered for Indonesia include: PT Telekomunikasi Selular (Telkomsel), PT Satelit Palapa Indonesia (Satelindo), PT Excelcomindo Pratama Tbk (Excelcomindo), Telkom Flexi, and StarOne. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Executive Summary
Subscriber growth remains strong in Indonesia
+39.3% industry average subscriber growth in 1Q.2009
ARPUs continue declining across operators in Indonesia's wireless market
-27.7% industry average ARPU growth in 1Q.2009
Despite low ARPU and high churn, EBITDA margins in Indonesia are quite strong
54.5% industry average EBITDA margin in 1Q.2009
So what is Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in Indonesia to reach 204.4 million in 2013
- During the forecast period from 2008 to 2013, we expect the subscriber base in Indonesia to increase from 135.7 million in 2008 to 204.4 million in 2013.
- Telkomsel will continue to be the largest wireless operator in Indonesia. Given the latest quarter numbers, our model predicts that Telkomsel's subscriber base will increase from 61.9 million in 2008 to 111.1 million in 2013.
- Also, we expect that Satelindo will have 38.4 million subscribers and Excelcomindo will have 33.2 million subscribers by the end of 2013.
Telkomsel's subscriber market share will be increasing over the next five years
- Our model predicts that Telkomsel's market share (by subscribers) will increase from 45.6% in 2008 to 54.4% in 2013.
- We also expect that Telekom Flexi's share of total subscribers will increase from 7.0% in 2008 to 9.8% in 2013.
- In contrast, we forecast that Satelindo will see its market share decline from 27.0% to 18.8% and Excelcomindo's share will decline from 19.7% to 16.2% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
Telkomsel will continue to enjoy higher ARPUs than its competitors from 2009 to 2013
- Our model predicts that the industry average monthly ARPU will decline from IDR 46,733 in 2008 to IDR 35,505 in 2013.
- We expect that Telkomsel's ARPU level will remain the highest in the country although we expect that its monthly ARPU will decline from IDR 59,124 in 2008 to IDR 42,321 in 2013.
We are forecasting slightly decreasing EBITDA margins for Satelindo and Excelcomindo
- According to our model, Satelindo's EBITDA margin (EBITDA/reported revenue) will decrease from 48.5% in 2008 to 46.3% in 2013.
- Excelcomindo's EBITDA margin will also fall from 52.6% in 2008 to 43.8% in 2013.
- On the other hand, we expect that Telkomsel's EBITDA margin will be improving over the next several years to exceed 70% in 2011.
Also available
1Q09 Indonesia Mobile Operator Forecast, 2008 – 2013
4Q09 Indonesia Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 – 2013
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