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3Q09 Nigeria Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013
IE Market Research Corp, Oct 2009, Pages: 118
Total wireless subscribers in Nigeria to reach 113.5 million in 2013 with MTN and MTC losing market shares to Nitel and Globacom over the next five years
Mobile Operator Forecast on Nigeria provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for Nigeria’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 1Q2011. Operators covered for Nigeria include: MTN Group Limited, MTC - Mobile Telecommunications Company (Zain Group), Nitel - Nigerian Telecommunications Limited, and Globacom Ltd. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Executive Summary
Strong subscriber growth continues in Nigeria's wireless market
+44.0% industry average subscriber growth in 1Q.2009
ARPUs declined significantly in the latest quarter
-21.3% industry average ARPU growth in 1Q.2009
Positive EBITDA growth at MTN in the latest quarter
Industry average EBITDA growth was 15.3% in 1Q.2009
So what is Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers to reach 113.5 million in 2013
- We forecast that total mobile subscribers in Nigeria will increase from 52.9 million in 2008 to 113.5 million in 2013.
- MTN will continue to be the largest mobile operator in Nigeria. We expect that its subscriber base will increase from 23.7 million in 2008 to 36.6 million in 2013.
- Also, we forecast that the number of mobile subscribers at MTC will increase from 17.0 million in 2008 to 27.7 million in 2013.
- Given the latest quarter numbers, our model predicts that Nitel's subscriber base will increase dramatically over the next several years to reach 20.7 million in 2013. We also predict that Globalcom will have 28.4 million mobile subscribers in 2013.
MTN leads Nigeria’s mobile operator space, but its market share will be declining
- We forecast that, while MTN will continue to be in the leading position in Nigeria's wireless market, it will be losing its subscriber market share to smaller operators over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
- Our model predicts that MTN's share of total subscribers will fall from 44.9% in 2008 to 32.3% in 2013.
- We expect that MTC will also see its market share decline from 32.1% in 2008 to 24.4% in 2013.
- In contrast, market shares at Nitel and Globacom will be growing over the next five years to reach 18.3% and 25.0% respectively in 2013.
ARPUs will continue to decrease in Nigeria's wireless market
- According to our forecasting model, MTN's monthly ARPU will fall from US$ 15.01 in 2008 to US$ 12.40 in 2013.
- Also, MTC's ARPU level will fall from US$ 9.26 in 2008 to US$ 5.54 in 2013.
EBITDA margins to improve slightly over the next five years
- We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will increase from 48.2% in 2008 to 49.7% in 2013.
- MTN will continue to enjoy a high level of profitability in Nigeria's wireless market. Our model predicts that MTN's EBITDA margin will increase from 58.0% in 2008 to 58.8% in 2013.
- On the other hand, MTC will see an increase in its EBITDA margin from 35.6% in 2008 to 38.5% in 2013.
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