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3Q09 Norway Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013
IE Market Research Corp, Oct 2009, Pages: 118
Total wireless subscribers in Norway to reach 5.68 million with Telenor taking 55.0% market share
Mobile Operator Forecast on Norway provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for Norway’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 1Q2011. Operators covered for Norway include: Telenor ASA, and NetCom (TeliaSonera AB). Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Executive Summary
Subscriber growth is stabilizing in Norway's operator space
+1.3% industry average subscriber growth in 1Q.2009
ARPU growth is improving but still in negative territory in Norway
-1.9% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 1Q.2009
Minutes of Use per Subscriber are increasing
+6.5% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 1Q.2009
Strong EBITDA growth at Telenor in the latest quarter
+12.7% industry average EBITDA growth in 1Q.2009
So what is Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in Norway to reach 5.68 million in 2013
- Although we were previously forecasting that total mobile subscribers in Norway would exceed 6 million, we have adjusted this forecast downward. We now expect that total wireless subscribers will increase from 5.45 million in 2008 to 5.68 million in 2013.
- Our model predicts that Telenor's subscriber base will increase from 3.02 million accounts in 2008 to 3.12 million accounts in 2013.
Telenor will be losing its subscriber market share to its competitors over the next five years
- Telenor will continue to be the largest wireless carrier in Norway, but we forecast that Telenor's subscriber market share will decline slightly from 55.4% in 2008 to 55.0% in 2013.
- The rest of the market will be taken by other operators such as Netcom (TeliaSonera). Their combined market share will increase from 44.6% in 2008 to 45.0% in 2013.
ARPU levels in Norway will be stabilizing from 2008 to 2013
- Our model predicts that the industry average monthly ARPU level will decrease from NKR 323.52 to NKR 318.86 over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
- On the other hand, we forecast that Telenor will see its monthly ARPU increase slightly from NKR 317.50 in 2008 to NKR 319.04 in 2013.
Telenor's profitability will be improving over the next several years
- We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will rise from 35.5% in 2008 to 39.0% in 2013.
- At the operator level, we expect that Telenor's EBITDA margin will increase from 35.6% in 2008 to 40.4% in 2013.
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