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3Q09 Pakistan Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013
IE Market Research Corp, Oct 2009, Pages: 118
Total wireless subscribers in Pakistan will rise to 132 million in 2013 with Mobilink taking 26.3% market share
Mobile Operator Forecast on Pakistan provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for Pakistan’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 1Q2011. Operators covered for Pakistan include: Mobilink (Pakistan Mobile Communications Limited), Ufone GSM, China Mobile Ltd. (Paktel), Instaphone, Telenor ASA, and Warid Telecom International. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Executive Summary
Subscriber growth is slowing down in Pakistan's wireless market
+10.9% industry average subscriber growth in 1Q.2009
ARPUs are decreasing in Pakistan's mobile operator space
-20.8% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 1Q.2009
Minutes of Use per Subscriber are increasing at Mobilink
+5.5% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 1Q.2009
Operators seeing their EBITDA growth decrease
Industry average EBITDA growth was -33.9% in 1Q.2009
So what is Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in Pakistan to reach 132 million in 2013
- We forecast that total mobile subscribers in Pakistan will increase from 94.7million in 2008 to 132.0 million in 2013.
- Mobilink will continue to be the largest player in Pakistan’s mobile operator space over the next five years, but we expect that Mobilink's subscriber base will decrease from 35.6 million in 2008 to 34.6 million in 2013.
- On the other hand, we forecast that Telenor's subscriber base will grow from 19.9 million in 2008 to 31.6 million in 2013.
Mobilink, the largest operator in Pakistan, will see its market share decline from 2009 - 2013
- Our model predicts that Mobilink's market share will decline steadily over the next five years, from 37.6% in 2008 to 26.3% in 2013.
- On the other hand, smaller operators see their market shares increase. We forecast that Telenor's share will increase from 21.0% to 24.0%, Ufone's share will increase from 19.8% to 21.0%, and Warid Telecom's share will increase from 17.4% to 20.1% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
ARPUs will be stabilizing in Pakistan's wireless market
- ARPU levels remain low in Pakistan's mobile operator space. We expect that the industry average ARPU will decline from US$ 2.66 in 1Q.2008 to US$ 2.48 in 1Q.2009.
- We think that, in 2013, Telenor's monthly ARPU will be at highest among operators at US$ 2.76. The operator with the lowest monthly ARPU will be China Mobile (Paktel) with US$ 1.11 in 2013.
Mobilink's EBITDA margin will improve over the next several years
- Mobilink's profitability will improve over the next five years. We forecast that Mobilink's EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will increase from 40.8% in 2008 to 42.2% in 2013.
- We also forecast that Telenor's EBITDA margin will increase from 17.5% in 2008 to 19.6% in 2013.
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