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3Q09 South Africa Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013
IE Market Research Corp, Oct 2009, Pages: 118
Total wireless subscribers in South Africa to reach 57 million in 2013 with Vodacom's market share declining to 46.0%
Mobile Operator Forecast on South Africa provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for South Africa’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 1Q2011. Operators covered for South Africa include: Vodacom Group (Pty) Ltd, MTN Group Limited, and Cell C (Pty) Ltd. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Executive Summary
Double-digit subscriber growth continues in South Africa's wireless market
+15.6% industry average subscriber growth in 1Q.2009
Negative ARPU growth at MTN and Cell C in the latest quarter
-2.0% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 1Q.2009
Minutes of Use per Subscriber was 89 minutes per month
-6.3% industry average MOU growth in 1Q.2009
MTN enjoyed strong EBITDA growth in the latest quarter
+9.6% industry average EBITDA growth in 1Q.2009
So what is Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in South Africa to reach 57 million in 2013
- We forecast that total wireless subscribers in South Africa will increase from 47.7 million in 2008 to 57.1 million in 2013.
- We expect that Vodacom will continue to be the largest mobile operator in the country with 26.2 million subscribers in 2013.
- Also, our model predicts that MTN will have 21.9 million subscribers and Cell C will have 8.4 million subscribers by the end of 2013.
Vodacom will be losing subscriber market share to MTN and Cell C from 2009 to 2013
- Vodacom will continue to lead South Africa in market share, but our model predicts that its subscriber market share will decline from 50.3% in 2008 to 46.0% in 2013.
- On the other hand, we expect that market shares at MTN and Cell C will increase to 38.4% and 14.7% respectively in 2013.
ARPUs in South Africa will continue to decrease over the next five years
- We forecast that the industry average monthly ARPU will decrease from ZAR 141.79 in 2008 to ZAR 103.38 in 2013.
- According to our model, Vodacom's monthly ARPU will decrease from ZAR 140.79 to ZAR 101.59, and MTN's monthly ARPU will decrease from ZAR 148.00 to ZAR 102.83 over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
- We also expect that Cell C's monthly ARPU will decline from ZAR 127.99 in 2008 to ZAR 110.52 in 2013.
Profitability at Vodacom, MTN and Cell C will be improving over the next several years
- We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will increase from 31.6% in 2008 to 35.5% in 2013.
- All three operators will see their EBITDA margins increase over the forecast period, with Vodacom in the lead, while Cell C and MTN (M-Cell) will come in second and third place respectively.
- Our model predicts that Vodacom’s EBITDA margins will increase from 34.5% in 2008 to 39.6% in 2013.
- Cell C's EBITDA margin will increase from 15.7% in 2008 to 24.2% in 2013, and that of MTN (M-Cell) will go from 32.5% in 2008 to 33.5% in 2013.
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