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3Q09 Thailand Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013
IE Market Research Corp, Oct 2009, Pages: 118
Total wireless subscribers in Thailand to reach 87.3 million in 2013 with Advanced Info Service's market share declining to 41.4%
Mobile Operator Forecast on Thailand provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for Thailand’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 1Q2011. Operators covered for Thailand include: Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited, Total Access Communication Public Company Limited, True Corporation Public Company Limited, and Hutchison Telecommunications International Limited. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Executive Summary
Wireless subscriber growth in Thailand continues to be strong, but it is slowing down
+13.2% industry average subscriber growth in 1Q.2009
ARPU levels continue declining in Thailand
-16.3% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 1Q.2009
Minutes of Use per Subscriber declined across operators in the latest quarter
-9.0% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 1Q.2009
Negative EBITDA growth at Advanced Info Service and Total Access Communication
Industry average EBITDA growth was -7.3% in 1Q.2009
So what is Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in Thailand to rise to 87.3 million in 2013
- We forecast that total mobile subscriber accounts in Thailand will increase from 62.6 million in 2008 to 87.3 million in 2013.
- Advanced Info Service will continue to be the largest operator in the country with 36.2 million wireless subscribers in 2013.
- Total Access Communication will remain in second place with 26.7 million subscribers in 2013, and True will remain in third place with 23.3 million subscribers in 2013.
Advanced Info Service will be losing its market share to Total Access Communication and True over the next five years
- Our model predicts that Advanced Info Service will see its subscriber market share decline from 44.5% in 2008 to 41.4% in 2013.
- On the other hand, we expect that Total Access Communication's market share will increase from 30.2% to 30.6%, and True's market share will increase from 24.0% to 26.7% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
- We expect that Hutchison's market share in Thailand will remain in the range of 1.2% - 1.6% over the next five years.
ARPUs in Thailand will continue to decline from 2009 to 2013
- We expect that the industry average monthly ARPU level in Thailand will decline from 230 Bhats in 2008 to 191 Bhats in 2013.
- Our model predicts that the average monthly ARPU will be 224 Bhats for Advanced Info Service, and 216 Bhats at Total Access Communication in 2013.
- On the other hand, True's ARPU will remain much lower, declining from 131 Bhats in 2008 to 112 Bhats in 2013.
EBITDA margins will decline over the next several years
- We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will decline from 35.1% in 2008 to 29.2% in 2013.
- Advanced Info Service will continue to enjoy the highest level of profitability (EBITDA margin) in Thailand, but its EBITDA margin will still decline from 42.2% in 2008 to 35.4% in 2013.
- Total Access Communication's margin will fall from 30.8% in 2008 to 26.8% in 2013.
- True's margin will fall from 18.8% in 2008 to 14.2% in 2013.
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