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3Q09 Turkey Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013
IE Market Research Corp, Oct 2009, Pages: 118
Total wireless subscribers in Turkey to reach 76 million in 2013 with Turkcell taking 56.9% market share
Mobile Operator Forecast on Turkey provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for Turkey’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 1Q2011. Operators covered for Turkey include: Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S. (Turkcell), Vodafone Group Plc, and Avea (Turk Telekomunikasyon A.S. (Turk Telekom)). Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Executive Summary
Subscriber growth in Turkey has slowed down in the last four quarters
+3.1% industry average subscriber growth in 1Q.2009
Positive ARPU growth at Turkcell in the latest quarter
+0.1% industry average ARPU growth in 1Q.2009
Minutes of Use per Subscriber increase across operators in Turkey
The industry average MOU/Sub growth of +26.0% in 1Q.2009
Turkcell's EBITDA growth improved in the latest quarter
+5.6% industry-average EBITDA growth in 1Q.2009
So what is Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in Turkey to increase to 76 million in 2013
- We forecast that total wireless subscribers in Turkey will increase from 66.4 million in 2008 to 76.0 million in 2013.
- Turkcell will continue to be the largest operator in the country with 43.2 million mobile subscribers in 2013.
- On the other hand, given the latest quarter numbers, we forecast that Vodafone will have 11.6 million and Avea (Turk Telekom) will have 21.1 million wireless subscriber accounts in 2013.
Vodafone will be losing market share to Turkcell and Avea over the next five years
- Given the recent performance by Vodafone in Turkey's wireless market, our forecasting model now predicts that Vodafone's subscriber market share will decline from 25.2% in 2008 to 15.3% in 2013.
- In contrast, we expect that Turkcell's market share will increase from 55.7% to 56.9% while Avea's share increases from 19.1% to 27.8% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
ARPU levels in Turkey will be stabilizing from 2009 to 2013
- Our model predicts that the industry average monthly ARPU will change from TRY 16.72 to TRY 16.56 over the forecast period, 2008 -2013.
- At the operator level, we forecast that Turkcell will continue to receive the highest ARPU in the country of TRY 18.80 per month in 2013 (up from TRY 18.60 in 2008).
- On the other hand, Vodafone's monthly ARPU will decrease from TRY 13.65 in 2008 to TRY 11.46 in 2013 and Avea's monthly ARPU will decrease from TRY 15.30 in 2008 to TRY 14.86 in 2013, according to our model.
Profitability at Turkey's mobile operators will decline over the next several years
- We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will decrease over the next several years from 28.3% in 2008 to 25.4% in 2013.
- Our model forecasts that Turkcell's EBITDA margin will decline from 39.1% in 2008 to 36.1% in 2013.
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