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3Q09 Ukraine Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013
IE Market Research Corp, Oct 2009, Pages: 118
Total mobile subscribers in Ukraine to reach 57.1 million in 2013 with Kyivstar's market share declining to 40.2%
Mobile Operator Forecast on Ukraine provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for Ukraine’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 1Q2011. Operators covered for Ukraine include: UMC (Ukrainian Mobile Communications), Kyivstar GSM, Astelit LLC, and URS (VimpelCom). Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Executive Summary
Subscriber growth is slowing down in Ukraine
+0.2% industry average subscriber growth in 1Q.2009
Negative ARPU growth at UMC and Kyivstar in the latest quarter
The industry-average ARPU growth of -5.2% in 1Q.2009
Kyivstar continues to lead EBITDA margins in Ukraine's mobile operator space
So what is Forecast?
Total wireless subscriber accounts in Ukraine to reach 57.1 million in 2013
- Given the latest quarter numbers, our forecasting model now predicts that the number of total wireless subscribers in Ukraine will change from 59.1 million in 2008 to 57.1 million in 2013.
- Kyivstar will continue to have the highest number of subscribers among other operators. We expect that Kyivstar will have 22.9 million subscribers in 2013.
- On the other hand, we expect that UMC will have 17.2 million subscribers and Astelit will have 12.4 million subscribers in 2013.
Kyivstar and UMC will be losing market shares to Astelit and URS over the next five years
- We forecast that Astelit's subscriber market share will increase from 18.0% to 21.7% and URS (VimpelCom)'s market share will increase from 4.6% to 6.1% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
- Although Kyivstar will continue to maintain its subscriber market share lead, we expect that Kyivstar's market share will decline from 41.6% in 2008 to 40.2% in 2013. We expect that market shares of UMC will also be decreasing from 34.8% in 2008 to 30.2% in 2013.
ARPU levels in Ukraine to increase slightly from 2009 to 2013
- Our model predicts that the industry average monthly ARPU will increase from UAH 36.06 in 2008 to UAH 38.49 in 2013.
- We expect that URS (VimpelCom) will continue to receive the highest level of ARPU in Ukraine at UAH 41.89 in 2013.
- Also, we expect that UMC's monthly ARPU will increase from UAH 36.18 in 2008 to UAH 41.59 in 2013.
EBITDA margins at Astelit and URS will be improving over the next several years
- We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will be in the range of 45% - 48% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
- Although EBITDA margins at Astelit and URS (VimpelCom) continue to be low compared to the industry average, we expect that they will see their EBITDA margins increase over the coming years. Our model predicts that Astelit's EBITDA margin will increase from 6.3% in 2008 to 9.1% in 2013, and URS's EBITDA margin will rise from 10.5% in 2008 to 24.3% in 2013.
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