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Argentina Retail Report Q4 2009
Business Monitor International, Sep 2009, Pages: 56
The Argentina Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Argentina's retail industry.
The Q409 Argentina Retail report predicts that the country’s retail sales will grow from just over US$191bn in 2008 to almost US$238bn by 2013. An expanding population, rising disposable income and a taste for ‘luxury’ items are key factors behind the forecast growth in Argentina’s retail sales. Argentina’s nominal GDP was US$350.96bn in 2008, with a decline of 1.0% forecast for 2009 as the economy goes into reverse. Average annual GDP growth of 1.7% is now predicted between 2008 and 2013. With the population increasing from 39.9mn in 2009 to an estimated 42.0mn by 2013, GDP per capita is forecast to rise nearly 21% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$10,607. Our assumption of consumer spending per capita is for an increase of 55%, from US$4,334 in 2008 to US$6,715 in 2013.
In 2005, 63.6% of the Argentinean population was described by the UN as ‘active’, with 36.8% in the crucial 20-44 age range. A massive 90.6% of the population was classified by the UN as urban. By 2015, the urban population is forecast to have reached more than 93.0% of the total population, with 38.0% in the 20-44 age band. By this time, 64.9% of the population is expected to be active. Efforts to rebuild credit have had a positive impact on consumer expenditure and, consequently, retail sales. In attempts to repair consumer confidence, banks and retailers introduced more favourable terms for issuing consumer credit, and retailers – particularly the larger ones – established more flexible payment options to encourage expenditure.
Tourism also plays an important part in Argentinean retail sales. During 2008, tourists spent about US$3.3bn in the country, up by more than 8% from the previous year, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos, INDEC). However, tourist spending in March 2009 was down by more than 25% on the same month in 2008, suggesting that the retail market is being hit hard by the global economic downturn.
Retail sub-sectors that are likely to show strong growth over the forecast period include food and drink, with sales expected to rise from US$39.32bn in 2008 to US$58.24bn by 2013, an increase of 48.1%. Over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales are forecast to rise from US$0.37bn in 2008 to US$0.53bn by 2013 (+40.3%), with consumer electronics sales increasing by 38% during the same period to from US$3.93bn to US$5.43bn. Automotives sales, however, are forecast to increase by just 0.4% during the same period, from US$16.70bn to US$16.76bn.
Retail sales for our universe of Latin American countries in 2008 amounted to an estimated US$1,654bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on the macroeconomic database amounts to US$3,011bn. Argentina, Brazil and Mexico together accounted for an estimated 76.8% of regional retail sales in 2008, with their combined share expected to slip to 76.6% by 2013. For Argentina, its estimated 2008 market share of 11.6% is expected to fall to 10.4% by 2013.
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