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Mexico Retail Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Dec 2010, Pages: 62
The Mexico Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Mexico's retail industry.
The Q111 BMI Mexico retail report forecasts the country’s retail sales will grow from an expected MXN2,323bn (US$196.85bn) in 2011 to MXN2,603bn (US$250.89bn) by 2014, a rise of 12.1%. Increasing affluence, a growing population – including a larger number of young people – and the continuing development of organised retail infrastructure are the key factors behind the forecast growth in Mexico’s retail sales. Mexico’s nominal GDP is predicted to be US$1,023.22bn in 2011, with growth of 3.2% expected for the year.
Average annual GDP growth of 2.6% is predicted by BMI between 2011 and 2014. With the population increasing from an expected 109.5mn in 2011 to a forecast 112.2mn by 2014, GDP per capita is forecast to rise by 30.9%, reaching US$12,230. Mexico is the world’s 11th largest country in terms of population. Almost 55% of Mexicans are 24 years old or younger, one of the highest percentages for an upper-middle income economy in the world. The proportion in the 20-44 age range, crucial for retail sales, is forecast to be 41.5% by the end of 2010, according to the UN Population Division. In 2005, 63.6% of Mexicans were described by the UN as economically active and this is forecast to have reached 66.3% in 2010. The trend towards urbanisation is predicted to continue, with the proportion of those living in towns and cities in 2005 estimated at 76% by the UN and forecast to have hit
77.4% in 2010.
Consumer credit grew strongly in the years up to 2008. In 2006 banks approved 8.7mn credit cards, awarding 40% of the new accounts to customers with no previous credit history. There were estimated to be 29mn credit cards in circulation in Mexico during 2008, up from an estimated 22mn in 2007. The number of debit cards is estimated to be 11mn. However, access to credit tightened considerably during 2009. retail sub-sectors forecast to show strong growth include food and drink, up by 32.7%, from a predicted US$72.21bn in 2011 to US$95.78bn in 2014.
Consumer electronic sales are expected to increase by 33.7% between 2011 and 2014, from US$10.89bn to US$13.50bn. The Mexican market offers continued growth potential in key digital products groups such as computers (less than 20% penetration), notebook computers (21% CAGR projected), digital cameras (9%) and LCD TV sets (20% CAGR projected).
According to BMI data, vehicle sales are forecast to rise during the forecast period, from US$1.32bn to US$1.86bn. There remains significant optimism for a strong recovery in domestic demand for autos, with VW forecasting a 25% y-o-y rise in sales in 2010, to US$8bn.
Meanwhile, over the counter (OTC) pharmaceuticals are forecast to rise by 37.1%, from US$1.59bn to US$2.18bn. retail sales for our Latin American universe in 2011 are expected to reach US$1,302bn, based on varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region, based on BMI’s macroeconomic database, is predicted to be US$2,891bn. Mexico, Brazil and Venezuela are expected to account for an estimated 83.1% of regional retail sales in 2011, with the three countries likely to account for 85.3% of all retail sales in the region by 2014. Mexico’s predicted 2011 market share of 15.1% is expected to fall to 13.7% by 2014.
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