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Venezuela Retail Report Q4 2009
Business Monitor International, Sep 2009, Pages: 48
The Venezuela Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Venezuela's retail industry.
The Q409 Venezuela Retail report predicts that the country’s retail sales will grow from about US$145bn in 2008 to nearly US$176bn by 2013. Generally positive trends in underlying economic growth, an expanding population, the rise in disposable income and easier access to consumer credit are key factors behind the forecast growth in Venezuela’s retail sales.
Venezuela’s nominal GDP was US$314.62bn in 2008, with a decline of 5.6% now assumed for 2009 as the economy goes into reverse. Average annual GDP growth of just 0.2% is now predicted between 2008 and 2013. With the population increasing from 28.3mn in 2008 to an estimated 31.0mn by 2013, GDP per capita is predicted to rise by 8.5% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$12,067. We also forecast consumer spending per capita to increase from US$6,302 in 2008 to US$10,950 by 2013.
Positive economic indicators include increasing urbanisation, with more than 88% of the population classified by the UN as urban in 2005. By 2015, the urban population is forecast to have exceeded 95%. In 2005, 63.8% of the Venezuelan population was described by the UN as ‘active’, with 37.7% in the crucial 20-44 age range. By 2015, the proportion in the 20-44 age band is predicted to be 38.6% and 65.5% of the population is expected to be active.
The forecasts that organised retail sales will grow considerably faster than underlying retail sales over the period, with the organised retail sector likely to be worth US$75.95bn by 2013. This would take its share of the total retail market to 43.2%, up from 29.7% in 2008.
In terms of retail sub-sectors, consumer electronics sales are expected to show particularly strong growth over the forecast period, from US$3.22bn in 2008 to US$4.04bn by 2013 (+25.4%). However, OTC (over-the-counter) pharmaceutical sales and automotive sales are forecast to decline, ending the period at US$0.48bn (-23.7%) and US$1.2bn (-20.7%), respectively.
Retail sales for our universe of Latin American countries in 2008 amounted to an estimated US$1,654bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on the macroeconomic database amounts to US$3,011bn. Argentina, Brazil and Mexico together accounted for an estimated 76.8% of regional retail sales in 2008, with their combined share expected to slip to 76.6% by 2013. For Venezuela, the estimated 2008 market share of 8.8% is expected to fall to 7.7% by 2013.
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