South Africa Tourism Report Q4 2009
Business Monitor International, September 2009, Pages: 62
The South Africa Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, tourism associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on South Africa's tourism industry.
Tourism Overview
Following strong growth in foreign tourist arrivals in 2006, growth slowed in 2007 and 2008 to 8.5% and 5.7% year-on-year (y-o-y), respectively. The most recent official data, for the first five months of 2009, show a continuing weakening trend, with foreign visitor arrivals up by less than 1% y-o-y. In more detail, however, although these latest data show that arrivals from Africa recorded positive growth (up by about 5% y-o-y), every other region recorded declined in visitor numbers, compared with the same period in 2008. Furthermore, it is worth noting that arrivals from Zimbabwe were up over 16% y-o-y, representing an increase of 77,000, which amounted to about 55% of the total rise in numbers from Africa. Europe and North America recorded falls in arrivals of nearly 13% and over 12% y-o-y, respectively.
Hospitality
Latest data confirm a continuing, relatively sharp downturn in the hospitality sector for foreign and domestic tourism. The most recent data are for Q209 (preliminary data only) and show that the total number of foreign and domestic tourist room nights in all accommodation establishments decreased a marked 9.8% compared with the second quarter of 2008. This follows a similar 9.5% y-o-y fall in tourist room nights in Q109.
Forecast Scenario
According to our new forecasts, BMI expects total foreign tourist arrivals to decline slightly this year, by about 1.7% y-o-y. The weak outlook for 2009 rests partly on further downward revisions to our economic forecasts in major source markets, particularly the eurozone, and changes to our exchange rate forecasts. Since out last report, we have revised up our short-term forecast for the South African rand against the US dollar and the euro, putting further pressure on the tourism industry. For 2010, however, we maintain that growth in tourist arrivals and tourism receipts will pick up sharply, as the country hosts the FIFA World Cup and economic recovery takes place in key source markets.
2010 World Cup
The Confederations Cup, which takes place a year before the World Cup and is used as a dress rehearsal for the main event, took place in South Africa in June. Many of the projects emanating from numerous guarantees given to FIFA to host the World Cup were put to the test during the Confederations Cup, which was broadly regarded as a success. The government acknowledged in August 2009, however, that there were some areas that required improvement, particularly in transport and accommodation. The authorities also said that despite large-scale strikes by stadium workers in July, they were confident that the grounds will still be ready for the World Cup, unless major strikes resume.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
SWOT ANALYSIS
South Africa Tourism SWOT
South Africa Political SWOT
South Africa Economic SWOT
South Africa Business Environment SWOT
INDUSTRY FORECAST SCENARIO
Arrivals
Table: Arrivals Data, 2005-2013
Accommodation
Table: Accommodation Data, 2005-2013
Expenditure
Table: Expenditure Data, 2005-2013
Inbound Tourism
Table: Inbound Tourism By Region, 2005-2013
Table: Inbound Tourism By Country, 2005-2013
Outbound Tourism
Table: Outbound Tourism By Destination Region, 2005-2013
Table: Outbound Tourism By Destination Country, 2005-2013
The ‘World Cup Effect’
Table: Key Tourism Source Markets Likely To Participate In The 2010 World Cup*
Table: Number Of Beds Required In Each Host City For FIFA 2010 World Cup Games
MARKET OVERVIEW – TRAVEL
Airports
Commercial Airlines
Special Focus: Jet Fuel Costs
Global Oil Products Market Review
Table Global Oil Prices, 2003-2013 (US$ per barrel)
Car Rental
MARKET OVERVIEW – HOSPITALITY
Accommodation Developments
Casinos
Table: Key Players In South Africa’s Hotel And Gaming Industry
Game Lodges
Regional Case Study – Accor
Table: Accor Hotel Business In Selected Middle East And Africa Countries, June 2009
BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT RATINGS
Tourism Business Environment Ratings
Table: Middle East And Africa Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings
Table: Middle East And North Africa State Terrorism Vulnerability Index
South Africa’s Security Rating
Conflict Risk
Terrorism Risk
Physical Safety Risk
City Terrorism Rating
Methodological Overview
Table: Methodology
Table: BMI’s Africa City Terrorism Index
SPECIAL REPORT: CRIME
CURRENCY FORECAST
ZAR: Driven By Dollar Weakness
Table: BMI South Africa Currency Forecasts
GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
Table: BMI’s Global Assumptions, 2007-2013
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2008-2011
Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2008-2011 (average)
Table: Key Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2008-2011 (average against US$)
COMPANY PROFILES
South African Airways Ltd (SAA)
Sun International
Southern Sun
METHODOLOGY
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Tourism Industry
Tourism Ratings – Methodology
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators
Table: Weighting of Components
Sources
- South African Airways Ltd (SAA)
- Sun International
- Southern Sun
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