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Belarus Food and Drink Report Q4 2009
Business Monitor International, Oct 2009, Pages: 46
The Belarus Food and Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, food and drink associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Belarus' food and drink industry.
A marked decline in domestic and foreign investment together with a fall in exports are among the principle factors in BMI’s forecast that Belarus’ economy will contract by -1.9% in 2009. Historically a market that foreign investors have avoided due largely to the state’s prominent role in industry, Belarus has shown some signs that it is willing to adopt more liberal economic policies. Although the underdeveloped beer industry has been the main recipient of foreign investment, other drink industries may gradually come under the radar of regional companies in particular once the downturn passes, as discussed in BMI’s recently Belarus Food & Drink Report for Q409.
Belarus’ erstwhile highly underdeveloped beer industry is gradually benefitting from the government’s steady relaxation in ownership regulations. Carlsberg and Heineken have been the two main recipients. While Carlsberg made a steady first-move by buying up 30% of Olivaria Brewery – Belarus’ third largest brewer by market share, Heineken followed by acquiring a controlling interest in Syabar in 2007. While the government has allowed investment into the mentioned pair, it has so far failed to budge when it comes to Krinista, the market leader. At just 30 litres per annum, per capita beer consumption is low by Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) standards. Through to 2013, BMI has forecast alcoholic drinks value sales to increase by 48.6% and reach BYR1.2trn (US$422.5mn), which should particularly benefit the beer industry as consumers continue to gradually switch over to lower alcohol content drinks. Switching over to soft drinks, Belarusian consumers, similar to their counterparts across the CIS region, are not overly enthused by carbonated drinks. The core brands of Coca Cola and PepsiCo are therefore not that well established which is unusual for an emerging economy and is a legacy that dates back to the Soviet era. Through to 2013, we expect demand for bottled water and fruit juices to continue increasing in line with rising health consciousness. In BMI’s opinion, Belarus remains a fairly attractive market for soft drinks manufacturers based in the CIS region.
The high end of the hot drinks segment is well accounted for by multinationals like Nestlé and Unilever with their benchmark brands. However, the economy segment remains highly fragmented with sales spread thinly across a number of much smaller companies.
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