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Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania - Banking Market in The Baltics 2009-2011, CEE Banking Brief
Inteliace Research, Oct 2009, Pages: 41
Banking Market in the Baltics 2009-2011 is the latest edition of annual research paper covering banking sectors in Baltcic countries. This publication builds on the success of the 2008 issue and provides an updated view of emerging trends in banking sectors of: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
Similarly to the previous version this analysis covers a wide range of perspectives including: Market size, competitive structure, market shares and comparative analysis - benchmarking. The new study has been of course upgraded with most recent forecasts of banking assets evolution through 2011, separately for each of countries in question. When preparing this report we have also responded to the feedback received from customers and have incorporated improvements making this new issue more client-friendly and informative.
- Macroeconomic situation. The last months of the year 2008 and the first half of 2009 were not particularly successful for Baltic economies. Bursting real estate bubbles, exploding unemployment and dramatic downturns in the GDP -all those factors unfortunately confirm that Baltic countries are among regions most affected by the current worldwide economic crisis. Estonia, Latvia und Lithuania slid into a deep recession very rapidly paying the price for several years of exceptional growth fueled by the excessive use of easily available credit, provided mostly by Scandinavian banks.
- Banking markets. Baltic banking markets have been flourishing up to 2007 when the upward trend of the economy halted and the explosive expansion of lending and deposits reversed. However, despite the painful correction, the well developed banking infrastructure including: dense branch, ATM and POS networks, as well as common use of remote banking channels place Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania still among the most advanced banking markets in Central and Eastern Europe. This can be also confirmed by common banking penetration benchmarks , which despite the recent correction still exceed the CEE average.
- Competition. In contrary to the rest of CEE, Baltic banking markets have been historically highly concentrated. Top 5 international groups present in all 3 countries control more than 77% of combined banking assets. On the other side lack of major administrative entry barriers and current weakness of major players , makes Baltic markets still an interesting opportunity for new entrants, enabling both M&A or “greenfield” approach.
- Perspectives. The recent economic tensions forced governments in Baltic countries to apply radical public spending cuts which contributed to accelerating growth in unemployment and resulted in a true collapse of private consumption. All those factors will obviously drag down the rate of growth in all Baltic countries in the near future. Nevertheless Baltic economies are relatively flexible, viable and of relatively small size, so after the temporary correction, they are likely to resume growth quicker than other larger countries. Intelace Research assumes that both GDP and banking volumes in Baltic countries will keep falling through mid-2010 , when the trend is likely to reverse
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