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Kuwait Retail Report Q4 2009
Business Monitor International, Oct 2009, Pages: 51
Kuwait Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Kuwait's retail industry.
Q409 Kuwait Retail Report predicts that the country’s retail sales will grow from around US$38.7bn in 2008 to US$53.7bn by 2013. Key factors behind the forecast growth in Kuwait’s retail sales are a favourable long-term economic outlook, a sophisticated consumer base and high levels of disposable income.
Kuwait’s nominal GDP was US$142.09bn in 2008, with a decline of 2.2% now assumed for 2009 as the economy goes into reverse. Average annual GDP growth of 2.5% is now predicted between 2008 and 2013. With the population rising slightly from its 2008 level of 3.3mn to reach 3.4mn by the end of the forecast period, GDP per capita is predicted to rise by more than 6% by 2013, reaching US$45,608. Approximately 80% of the Kuwaiti population are expatriates, and foreign workers crossing the border from Iraq serve to stimulate the retail market.
In 2005, 73.8% of the Kuwaiti population was described by the UN as economically active, with 37.9% in the crucial (for retail sales) 20-44 age range. By 2010, 74.6% of the population is expected to be active, while the proportion of those in the 20-44 age band is forecast to reach 39.4%.
A very high level of urbanisation is also contributing to a vibrant retail sector. In 2005, more than 96% of the population was classified by the UN as urban, and this is forecast to increase to almost 99% by 2015. According to Arabianbusiness.com, by 2010 the gross leasable area (GLA) in Kuwait’s retail sector is expected to total 1.15mn m2, compared with the 345,000m2 in use in 2006. Property consultant Colliers International expects Kuwait to have the third largest supply of retail space in the Gulf by 2010.
According to this data, retail sub-sectors that are predicted to show strong growth over the forecast period include consumer electronics, with sales increasing from US$0.67bn in 2008 to US$0.94bn by the end of the forecast period, a rise of 41%. Sales of over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical products are predicted to increase by nearly 35%, from US$1.41bn in 2008 to US$01.90bn by 2013. Automotive sales are forecast to rise by just over 3% during the period, from US$3.38bn in 2008 to US$3.49bn by 2013. Retail sales for our set of Middle East and Africa (MEA) countries in 2008 amounted to an estimated US$382bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on the macroeconomic database amounts to US$660.41bn. In 2008, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, Egypt and South Africa together accounted for an estimated 79.8% of regional retail sales, and their combined share is expected to rise to 80.7% by 2013. For Kuwait, the estimated 2007 regional market share of 10.1% is expected to ease to 9.5% by 2013.
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