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Turkey Retail Report Q4 2009
Business Monitor International, Oct 2009, Pages: 60
Turkey Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Turkey's retail industry.
Q409 Turkey Retail Report predicts that the country’s retail sales will grow from about US$246bn in 2008 to US$301bn by 2013. Underlying economic growth, an expanding population, especially in urban areas; rising levels of disposable income and the continued development of organised retail infrastructure are key factors behind the forecast growth in Turkish retail sales.
Turkey’s nominal GDP was US$729.53bn in 2008, with a decline of 5.7% expected in 2009 as the economy goes into reverse. Average annual GDP growth of 1.8% is now predicted between 2008 and 2013. With the population increasing from 71.3mn in 2008 to an estimated 75.6mn by 2013, GDP per capita is forecast to rise by more than 15% to US$11,790 by the end of the forecast period. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$4,043 in 2008 to US$7,650 by 2013. Salaries in Turkey remain low, with the authors estimating the 2007 average annual wage at US$5,848. However, Turkey has a large, growing and young population. Each year, 750,000 young people join the workforce and, with an increasing level of urbanisation, many are abandoning the agricultural sector in order to seek better paid work in other areas. Nevertheless, unemployment is a problem, standing at 12.3% in 2008 and potentially rising to 16.0% in 2009.
In 2005, 65.8% of the Turkish population was described by the UN as economically active, with 41.0% in the crucial (for retail sales) 20-44 age range. Just over two-thirds of the population was classified by the UN as urban (67.3%). By 2015, the urban population is forecast to have reached almost 72%, with 43.8% in the 20-44 age band and 69.1% of the population is expected to be active.
The authors have calculated that organised retail accounted for an estimated US$96.63bn of overall sales in 2008, rising to a forecast US$122.37bn by 2013. This represents an annual average growth rate of 8.1%, compared with the predicted 6.2% annual growth rate in US dollar terms for overall retail sales. Food and drink had a 24.8% share of the total retail market in 2008, forecast to ease to 21.8% by 2013. Over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales are predicted to increase from US$1.15bn in 2008 to US$1.60bn by 2013, a rise of 38.9%. Automotive sales are forecast to rise by 20.0% during the same period to US$21.92bn. Sales of consumer electronics products, are forecast to increase by 96.4%, from US$7.19bn in 2008 to US$14.12bn by 2013.
Retail sales for the universe of CEE countries in 2008 amounted to an estimated US$199bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region, based on the macroeconomic database, amounts to US$812bn. Russia, Turkey and Poland together in 2008 accounted for an estimated 82% of regional retail sales in 2008, with their combined share expected to reach almost 84% by 2013. For Turkey, the estimated 2008 market share of 20.5% is expected to rise to 20.07% by 2013.
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