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Indonesia Tourism Report Q4 2009

Business Monitor International, October 2009, Pages: 49

This Indonesia Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, tourism associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Indonesia's tourism industry.

Solid performance In 2009 To Date
Indonesia has maintained the strong start to 2009 shown by its tourist arrivals data. Approximately 3.56mn tourists visited the country during the January-July period, representing annual growth of 2.56%, according to figures from the Badan Pusat Statistik (Central Bureau of Statistics, BPS). At a time when its neighbours are struggling with falling visitor numbers, this is an impressive result. However, the July bombing of two hotels in Jakarta by a terrorist group with links to al-Qaeda may lead to tourists staying away from Indonesia and the capital in particular. Against this backdrop, and with consumer demand already depressed by the global financial crisis, we still believe that a fall in tourist arrival numbers is the most likely scenario for 2009, with 2010 then seeing a slight rebound. As always, much will depend on the security situation in the country. If it can be stabilised, then BMI remains upbeat on the long-term potential for Indonesian tourism given its low-cost reputation.

Fresh Terror Attack Raises Fears
Nine people, including the attackers, were killed when suicide bombers struck the Ritz-Carlton and Marriott hotels in Jakarta on July 17. A domestic terror group with links to al-Qaeda, Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), claimed responsibility for the attack, which caused significant damage to both properties and came just a few days before the Manchester United team was due to arrive in Jakarta. The attack was the first major terrorist attack since the 2005 Bali bombings and could revive tourist fears about the safety of travel to the archipelago.

EU Lifts Ban On Four Indonesian Airlines
In July, the EU eased the ban on some Indonesian airlines that had been in place since 2007. Garuda Indonesia and Mandala Airlines, and the charter airlines Airfast and Premair, are now allowed back in European airspace, with the EU satisfied that ‘significant improvements’ had been made to safety within the industry. Foreign Minister Hassan Wirajuda told local media that Indonesia country had met 62 of the 69 safety requirements laid down by the EU. The lifting of the ban clears the way for the resumption of direct flights between Jakarta and the EU, with Garuda likely to launch services in 2010.

The lifting of the EU ban is a clear positive for the Indonesian aviation industry. Although no Indonesian carriers were flying to the EU when the ban was introduced, it acted as a deterrent to European travellers wanting to travel around the country on domestic flights. Both international and domestic services within Indonesia should benefit from the EU’s decision.

Executive Summary

SWOT Analysis
- Indonesia Tourism SWOT
- Indonesia Political SWOT
- Indonesia Economic SWOT
- Indonesia Business Environment SWOT

Industry Forecast Scenario
- Arrivals
- Table: Arrivals Data, 2005-2013
- Accommodation
- Table: Accommodation Data, 2005-2013
- Expenditure
- Table: Expenditure And Economic Impact Data, 2005-2013
- Inbound Tourism
- Table: Inbound Tourism – Arrival Of Tourists At National Borders, 2005-2013
- Outbound Tourism
- Table: Outbound Tourism – Departures At National Borders, 2005-2013

Market Overview – Travel
- Commercial Airlines
- Safety concerns eased
- Global Oil Products Market Review
- Table Global Oil Prices, 2003-2013 (US$ per barrel)
- Market Overview – Hospitality
- Accommodation
- H5N1 And H1N1 Virus Update
- Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Asia Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings
- BMI’s Security Ratings
- Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
- Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
- South East Asia Regional Security Overview
- Indonesia’s Security Risk Ratings
- Monetary Policy
- Table: Indonesia Monetary Policy, 2004-2013

Global Assumptions
- Table: BMI’s Global Assumptions, 2007-2013
- Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2008-2011
- Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2008-2011 (average)
- Table: Key Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2008-2011 (average against US$)
- Company Profiles
- Garuda Indonesia
- Accor Asia Pacific Indonesia (AAPC)
- Lion Air

Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Tourism Industry
- Tourism Ratings – Methodology
- Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators
- Table: Weighting of Components
- Sources

- Garuda Indonesia
- Accor Asia Pacific Indonesia (AAPC)
- Lion Air

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