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Forecast Update: Fixed Broadband Access Equipment
Ovum, Aug 2009, Pages: 24
Ovum forecasts fixed broadband network spending of over $45 billion over the forecast period (2009-2014), with periods of growth alternating with periods of decline in the most likely scenario. After some strong growth in recent years, aggregate fixed broadband subscriber growth is set to slow down, with single-digit annual growth rates over the forecast period. Of the major fixed broadband technologies, spending on consumer FTTx deployments at $23 billion will be the largest category. Cumulative FTTx subscribers, comprised mainly of FTTB and FTTH, will grow at 27% CAGR with Asia-Pacific leading the way. In particular, China is poised to become the fastest growing country with aggressive FTTB deployments. The need for capacity upgrades will drive equipment spending as much as or more than subscriber additions. Among DSL technologies, Ovum expects to see growth from ADSL2+ and VDSL2 categories in selected markets in 2010 and beyond, primarily due to FTTB, FTTC, and FTTN deployments. We also expect the CMTS equipment market to grow from 2010 onwards as DOCSIS 3.0 upgrades gather momentum and MSOs increasingly transport IP video through the CMTS. Vendors need to have products in the growth categories and in several markets during this time to achieve volumes that drive profitability.
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