- Language: English
- Published: March 2013
- Region: Australia
4Q09 Belgium Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013
- Published: November 2009
- Region: Belgium
- 118 pages
- IE Market Research Corp
Belgium will have 12.3 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with Proximus (Belgacom) taking market share of 44.2%
Mobile Operator Forecast on Belgium provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Belgian wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. The publisher provides five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. They also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Belgium include: Proximus (Belgacom), Mobistar, and Base. The publisher's Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. The publisher's forecasts are based on their proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011
PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR
DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR -
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) -
MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH) -
MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) -
SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD) -
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD)
- Available only for Proximus (Belgacom) and Base
Subscriber growth remains strong in Belgium's wireless market
+8.0% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009
ARPU levels continue to decline across operators
-4.7% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009
Minutes of Use per Subscriber in Belgium have decreased
-9.0% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 2Q.2009
Positive EBITDA growth at Mobistar and Proximus in the latest quarter
+3.2% industry average EBITDA growth in 2Q.2009
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total wireless subscriber accounts in Belgium to reach 12.3 million in 2013
- The publisher forecasts that total wireless subscribers in Belgium will increase from 11.0 million in 2008 to 12.3 million in 2013.
- Proximus will continue to be the largest mobile operator in Belgium over the next five years; the publisher expects that Proximus's subscriber base will increase from 4.9 million in 2008 to 5.4 million in 2013.
- Mobistar will be the second largest mobile operator with 3.7 million subscriber accounts in 2013. Base will be the third with 3.1 million subscribers in 2013, according to our model.
Base will see its subscriber market share increase over the next five years
- The publisher expects that Base's subscriber market share increases from 24.4% to 25.3% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
- On the other hand, the publisher forecasts that market shares at Proximus and Mobistar will be declining slightly over the next several years to reach 44.2% and 30.5% respectively by the end of 2013.
ARPUs in Belgium will continue to decline from 2009 to 2013
- Declining trend in ARPUs continues in Belgium's wireless market. The publisher forecasts that Mobistar's monthly ARPU will decline from €31.65 in 2008 to €25.51 in 2013.
- The publisher also expect that monthly ARPU at Base will decrease from €17.00 in 2008 to €15.75 in 2013.
EBITDA margins will decrease slightly over the next five years
- The largest operator, Proximus, will continue to enjoy a higher level of profitability than Mobistar and Base. The publisher expects that its EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will be approximately 46.1% in 2013.
- The publisher also expects that Mobistar's EBITDA margin will also remain above 40%. The publisher forecasts that Mobistar's EBITDA margin will be 44.2% in 2013.
- In contrast, the publisher expects declines in Base's EBITDA margins as its revenue grows faster than its EBITDA. Their model predicts that Base's EBITDA margin will fall from 37.1% in 2008 to 26.3% in 2013.