3Q11 Russia Mobile Operator Forecast, 2011 - 2015: Russia to have 238 million mobile subscriber connections in 2015 with VimpelCom taking 23% market share
- Published: October 2011
- Region: Russia
Russia will have 276 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with MTS taking market share of 35.2%
Mobile Operator Forecast on Russia provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Russian wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. The publisher provides five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. They also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Russia include: Mobile TeleSystems OJSC (MTS), Vimpel-Communications (VimpelCom), and MegaFon OJSC. The publisher's Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. The publisher's forecasts are based on their proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast
Mobile TeleSystems OJSC (MTS)
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011
PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
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- Not available for MegaFon OJSC
Strong subscriber growth continues in the Russian wireless market
+13.7% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009
ARPU levels declined across operators in the latest quarter
-7.4% industry average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009
Minutes of Use per Subscriber are stabilizing
The industry average MOU/Sub growth of +0.7% in 2Q.2009
Negative EBITDA growth at MTS in the latest quarter
-34.4% industry average EBITDA growth in 2Q.2009
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in Russia to reach 276 million in 2013
- Given the latest quarter numbers, the publisher is forecasting that total mobile subscribers in Russia will increase from 187.8 million in 2008 to 276.4 million in 2013.
- The publisher's model predicts that MTS's number of subscribers will increase from 64.6 million accounts in 2008 to 97.4 million accounts in 2013.
- The publisher also expects that, by the end of 2013, VimpelCom will have 70.5 million subscribers while MegaFon will have 60.7 million subscribers.
MTS's market share to increase slightly over the next five years
- The publisher's model predicts that MTS will see its subscriber market share increase from 34.4% in 2008 to 35.2% in 2013.
- In comparison, VimpelCom's market share will remain at approximately 25.5% over the next five years.
- The publisher expects that MegaFon's market share will decline slightly from 23.0% in 2008 to 22.0% in 2013.
ARPU levels in Russia will be falling from 2009 to 2013
- The publisher expects that MTS's ARPUs will be declining over the next five years. The publisher's model forecasts that MTS's monthly ARPU will fall from RUB 245 in 2008 to RUB 195 in 2013.
- In comparison, they forecast that VimpelCom's monthly ARPU will remain much higher than MTS's at RUB 322 in 2013 (down from RUB 329 in 2008).
- Also, The publisher expects that MegaFon's monthly ARPU will decline from RUB 364 in 2008 to RUB 326 in 2013.
MTS's EBITDA margin will be declining over the next several years
- The publisher forecasts that MTS's EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will decline from 50.1% in 2008 to 41.9% in 2013.
- VimpelCom, on the other hand, will see its EBITDA margin improve from 52.4% in 2008 to 46.5% in 2013, according to our model.
Mobile TeleSystems OJSC (MTS)