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Poland Information Technology Report Q4 2009
Business Monitor International, Oct 2009, Pages: 51
The Poland Information Technology Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, information technology associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Poland's information technology industry.
Market Overview
Poland is expected to maintain its status as one of the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region's fastest growing IT markets over the 2009-2013 forecast period, thanks largely to EU funding for information and communication technology (ICT)-related initiatives. The size of the Polish IT market is estimated to increase from US$7.6bn in 2009 to around US$10.7bn in 2013. The current global economic headwinds will mean slower growth in 2009 and 2010 compared with the 2006-2008 trend level.
Polish consumer spending held up better than expected in H109, despite deteriorating consumer confidence, and Poland looks well positioned to be one of the regional markets less affected by current economic trends. However, some IT vendors revised their financial projections as Polish consumers deferred purchases and companies cut expenditure.
Despite the more challenging trading conditions, BMI still expects growth in many IT market segments over the next few years, particularly as EU funds support new public sector IT initiatives. Government IT spending will continue, even if some projects are delayed into 2010. The IT market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9% between 2009 and 2013, with IT services driving double-digit growth for the sector as a whole.
Industry Developments
Poland's National IT Infrastructure Plan for 2007-2013 was formally adopted by the government in 2008, following a public sector IT spending slowdown in preceding years. In 2008 new funding drove a series of tenders, with the information technology component to be worth nearly EUR1bn. According to Poland's National IT Infrastructure Plan, some 75% of funds spent on government IT projects over the next five years is expected to come from the EU.
BMI forecasts that wireless internet access will grow rapidly during 2009. Poland's broadband operators are also encouraging xDSL and cable-based broadband take-up by offering new innovative services, such as IPTV, video on demand (VOD) and VoIP in double- and triple-play packages. Such services will encourage subscriptions and drive spending on computers and other household electronics products.
Competitive Landscape
In H109, Dell said that it would move its European manufacturing base from Ireland to Poland and cut 1,900 out of 3,000 jobs at its Limerick plant. Previously there had been speculation that US giant Dell planned to dispose of a number of production facilities in Poland. This was despite the fact that Dell's latest plant in Poland was launched only in January 2008, with Dell spending EUR200mn to reduce supply time to European clients. Meanwhile, in May 2009, IBM signed a contact with the Ministry of Science and Education that provided for the establishment of an IBM research centre in Wroclaw. Wroclaw is also the among locations competing for a new IBM service centre, which is expected to create 3,000 new jobs. In 2008 IBM included Poland for the first time in its list of key exceptionally high-growth developing countries.
Computer Sales
Poland's computer hardware sales are projected at US$3.1bn in 2009 and are forecast to reach around US$4.1bn in 2013. The Polish addressable market for computers is estimated at around 2.9mn units sold in 2009, and this annual total could increase to 5.3mn by the end of BMI's forecast period. Despite some encouraging indications in Q209, H209 is likely to be a more difficult year because of the impact of the global financial crisis. PC penetration reached around 50% in 2008, and BMI projects that it could reach 70% by 2013. Falling prices of both desktops and notebooks have been a major growth driver for the hardware market, along with EU aid and overall economic recovery. Research has revealed that Poles are starting to purchase more high-end computers.
Software
The software market is projected to be worth US$1.7bn in 2009 and is likely to grow to US$2.4bn by 2013, giving a CAGR of 10%. Even before the economic slowdown there were signs that the large company market for basic enterprise resource planning (ERP) software was becoming saturated. This has encouraged vendors to target growth from upgrades to existing clients, as well as sales to smaller companies. Rising computer penetration in the enterprise sector has driven continued growth, despite the software piracy issue. The procurement of basic software packages such as ERP still accounts for about half of enterprise software spending, particularly in the manufacturing sector. However, vendors are increasingly focused on more specialised applications, such as customer relationship management (CRM) and business intelligence, where faster growth is possible.
IT Services
IT services spending, projected at US$3.0bn in 2009, is the fastest growing sector of the IT market and is expected to rise to US$4.3bn by 2013. In 2009 vendors are expected to benefit from IT projects tendered across sectors ranging from universities to banks and financial institutions, utilities and the public sector. However, overall spending growth is expected to decelerate. With a larger installed IT base, acceptance of the need for IT services is spreading through many organisations. While systems integration and hardware and software support and installation still collectively account for more than one-half of total IT spending, outsourcing has become the fastest growing segment.
E-Readiness
The internet market continues to be constrained by high telephone charges and relatively low levels of computer penetration. Moreover, there are wide regional disparities, with internet penetration about twice as high in urban as in rural areas.
A recent Forrester survey revealed that, while overall online banking uptake and PC availability remained low, Polish internet consumers already matched southern Europeans in buying online. Poland even outperformed Spain, with 30% of online consumers having previously purchased something online, compared with just 29% in Spain.
How broadband will develop in the longer term will greatly depend on the Polish regulator's success at forcing TPSA into a functional split, as well as its continued liberalisation of the market. The regulator believes that the split will happen in 2010 or 2011, but there are high risks that it could be delayed longer than this. How wireless technologies are deployed to the rural regions will also be a major factor in the proliferation of broadband.
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