Kenya Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, November 2009, Pages: 73
Kenya Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Kenya's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
The proprietary Drug Expenditure Forecast Model reveals that the Kenyan pharmaceutical market will return to a double-digit growth rate in 2009 (in local currency terms), after declining to single-digit growth the previous year. During 2008, OTC and prescription medicine sales reached KES17.7bn (US$0.229bn), up from KES14.4bn (US$0.215bn) in 2007. This represented a 9.6% growth in local currency terms and a 6.7% growth in US dollar terms, down from the 13.2% and 21.5% growth rates achieved during 2007. By 2014, the authors believe that the Kenyan drug market will reach a value of KES33.48bn (US$0.650bn), equating to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.53% in local currency terms and 22.8% in US dollar terms. By 2019, the authors expect the pharmaceutical market to have reached a value of KES57.2bn (US$1.49bn), a 2009-2019 CAGR of 26.35% in Kenyan shilling terms and a staggering 45.0% in US dollar terms.
In Business Environment Ratings for Q110, despite Kenya’s overall pharmaceutical rating improving marginally to reach a value of 33.8, compared with its Q409 rating of 32.2, the East African country has dropped one place in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region to 16th place. Kenya is therefore above Zimbabwe, but below Algeria and Nigeria. Globally, Kenya is ranked in 70th position (also falling one place in Q110).
In October 2009, it was revealed that Kenya is facing a nationwide shortage of anti-retrovirals (ARVs) because the High Court barred the Ministry of Health from procuring them. A consortium of drug suppliers challenged the Public Procurement Administrative Review Board’s decision to force KEMSA to accept tender documents from an Indian drugmaker, Hetero Drugs Limited, and start the tender process afresh. KEMSA had rejected the Indian company’s tender documents as they allegedly did not comply with procurement rules.
In October 2009, it was revealed that the Breast Cancer Association and other stakeholders were urging the government to implement a Cancer Control Bill to improve treatment in the country. The association’s vice chairman said the Bill would force the government to allocate resources for an autonomous cancer unit that would deal with the treatment, diagnosis and research into cancer. The Bill would also enable the creation of an institute which would not have to rely on World Health Organization (WHO) statistics and the Nairobi Council Registry, which only collects data from public hospitals. Meanwhile, the acting director of KEMRI (the government body responsible for health research), said that it was operating on an annual budget of KES4bn (US$0.05bn), against the required KES9bn (US$0.12bn). He said that the budget deficit could be met by a mix of public and private partnerships, and not solely by an increase in government funding.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Kenya Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT
Kenya Political SWOT
Kenya Economic SWOT
Kenya Business Environment SWOT
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings
Table: Middle East And North Africa Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings, Q110
Limits To Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Kenya - Market Summary
Regulatory Regime
Recent Regulatory Developments
Counterfeit Drugs
Intellectual Property
Pricing And Reimbursement Regime
Table: Kenya Medical Supply Agency (KEMSA)’s Mandate
Regional Regulatory Developments
Industry Developments
Epidemiology
Healthcare Provision
Healthcare Sector Financing
Healthcare Reforms
National Drug Policy
Pharmaceutical Sector
Recent Pharmaceutical Industries Activities
Pharmaceutical Distribution
Supply Chain
Traditional African Medicine
Industry Forecast Scenario
Overall Market Forecast
Key Growth Factors – Industry
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic
Table: Kenya – Economic Activity, 2004 -2013
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
OTC Drug Market Forecast
Patented Drug Market Forecast
Generics Market Forecast
Pharmaceutical Export/Import Forecasts
Other Healthcare Data Forecasts
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
Company Profiles
Multinationals
GlaxoSmithKline
Pfizer
Novartis
Sanofi-Aventis
Merck & Co
Indigenous Producers
Dawa Limited
Universal Corporation Limited
Shelys Pharmaceuticals
Regal Pharmaceuticals
High Chem East Africa
Country Snapshot: Kenya Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Methodology
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Components
Sources
Forecast Tables
- GlaxoSmithKline
- Pfizer
- Novartis
- Sanofi-Aventis
- Merck & Co
- Dawa Limited
- Universal Corporation Limited
- Shelys Pharmaceuticals
- Regal Pharmaceuticals
- High Chem East Africa
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