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Nigeria Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, Nov 2009, Pages: 90
Nigeria Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Nigeria's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
The value of Nigeria’s pharmaceutical market in 2008 was NGN80.9bn (US$680mn). We forecast a 12.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in local currency during 2009, expecting that the market will grow by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.19% over our five-year forecast period (2009-2014), to reach NGN148.2bn (US$1.2bn). At the same time, expenditure on medicines as a percentage of GDP will continue to hover around a minor 0.3%, illustrative of the emerging status of the market and the widespread lack of access to and financing for necessary medicines. In fact, Nigeria is viewed as the third-least promising market in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region, as ranked by the Q110 Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings (BER) that assesses the 17 key countries.
Moreover, Nigeria continues to battle trade in counterfeit medicines. In August 2009, Nigerian authorities proposed a new strategy for the reduction of counterfeiting in the country. In addition to placing emphasis on only allowing accredited and qualified personnel to stock medicines, the agency has concluded that removal is not a viable option when there is no replacement for a particular medicine. Instead, providing purpose-built centres are now the centre point for tackling the major sources of fake medicines, with the authorities due to establish Zonal Drug Distribution Centres (ZDDCs) in each of the six geopolitical zones of Nigeria, delineating wholesaler markets and installing a Superintendent Pharmacist within each ZDDC.
In the meantime, the government’s national drug plan (NDP) for self-sufficiency, and the industry’s programme to meet 80% of local demand by 2015, seems to the authors to be an overly optimistic timeframe. As the schemes do not reflect the true state of the Nigerian manufacturing industry, we propose a more realistic target of 2025, especially as the Nigerian construction industry output will dip in 2009 before gradually rebounding to pre-2009 levels in 2011. In the meantime, exports continue to be disadvantaged by low pharmaceutical manufacturing output, quality and capacity levels, despite the presence of import tariffs on drugs that can be made locally.
This gap in the supply chain is being targeted by Indian companies, which have been encouraged by their government to set up operations in Africa. This would allow generic medicines to be sold at lower prices in the region and also protect the supply chain, which is notoriously compromised in the poorer countries. In the first phase of the project, pharmacies would be opened in Nigeria. India is specifically targeting Nigeria in order to reassure local authorities over the quality of its medicines, following a recent seizure of a consignment of counterfeit medicines emblazoned with the ‘Made in India’ brand, despite being manufactured in China.
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