Singapore Retail Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, November 2009, Pages: 44
Singapore Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Singapore's retail industry.
The Q110 BMI Singapore Retail Report forecasts that total retail sales will grow from an estimated US$28.19bn in 2009 to US$40.40bn by 2014. A low unemployment rate, rising disposable income and a strong tourism industry are key factors behind the forecast growth. Singapore’s nominal GDP was US$163.32bn in 2009. Average annual GDP growth of 2.4% is predicted by BMI to 2014. With the population expected to increase by 5.6% over the period, GDP per capita is predicted to rise from US$35.958 in 2009 to US$42,940 by 2014. Our assumption of consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$16,731 in 2009 to US$21,187 by the end of the forecast period.
Singapore Department of Statistics (SDS) figures show that median monthly household income from work among all resident households increased by 13% from SGD4,380 (US$3,068) in 2007 to SGD4,950 (US$3,469) in 2008. The number of households in higher income brackets also increased, with the proportion of employed households earning at least SGD7,000 (US$4,900) per month increasing from 33% in 2007 to 39% in 2008.
The country recorded 10.1mn visitors in 2008, according to the Singapore Tourism Board (STB). Tourism receipts were an estimated SGD14.8bn (US$10.4bn), a 5% increase over 2007. However, visitor arrivals declined in 2009, with the most recent figures available indicating that arrivals fell 9.2% in January to August over the same period the year before, to 6.23mn. Although the rate of decline has slowed since June, the STB still says its previous target of 17mn visitor arrivals and SGD30bn (US$21bn) in tourism receipts for 2015 will be a challenge.
SDS retail category figures suggest that the leading retail subsector in Singapore is the automotive industry, with estimated sales of US$11.53bn in 2009. Sporting, other recreational goods and personal effects accounted for US$2.45bn of sales; furniture, furnishings and other household equipment for US$2.21bn; jewellery, watches and clocks for US$1.87bn; textiles, clothing, footwear and leather goods for US$1.63bn; computers, telecommunications & office equipment for US$1.16bn; and optical and photographic goods, books, magazines and paper products for US$0.93bn.
Assuming unchanged market shares for these retail categories, the furniture and furnishings segment could be worth US$3.17bn by the end of the forecast period, with jewellery and watches potentially reaching US$2.67bn by 2014.
BMI estimates that the over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sector was worth US$0.12bn in 2009, and we predict that sales will remain flat throughout the forecast period. Sales of consumer electronics products are predicted to increase from US$3.17bn in 2009 to US$3.85bn before the end of the forecast period, a rise of 21.3%.
Retail sales for the BMI universe of Asian countries in 2009 were an estimated US$2.26trn. China and India alone in 2009 accounted for more than 93% of regional retail sales, and by 2014 their share of the regional market is still expected to exceed 91%. Growth in regional retail sales for 2009-2014 is put by BMI at 79%, or an annual average 12%. The Philippines should experience the most rapid rate of growth, followed by Malaysia. For Singapore, the estimated 2009 market share of 1.0% is expected to increase marginally to 1.1% by 2014.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Singapore Retail Business Environment SWOT
- Singapore Political SWOT
- Singapore Economic SWOT
- Singapore Business Environment SWOT
Market Overview
- Key Players
- Current Trends
Business Environment
- Asia Pacific Retail Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Asia Pacific Retail Business Environment Ratings
- Singapore’s Retail Rating
- Limits To Potential Returns
- Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Retail Growth Outlook
- Table: Key Retail Indicators, 2007-2014
- Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, 2009e
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Singapore Economic Activity, 2006-2013
Regional Retail Outlook
- Table: Asia Pacific Retail Trends, 2007-2014
- Table: Asia Pacific Retail Sales, 2007-2014 (% share)
- Regional Retail Trends
Mass Grocery Retail
- Singapore Mass Grocery Retail SWOT
- Market Overview
- Table: Structure Of Singapore’s MGR Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets, 2002-2007
- Table: Structure Of Singapore’s MGR Market By Value, 2002-2007 (US$mn)
- Table: Estimated Average Sales Per Outlet By Format, 2007 (US$mn)
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Singapore Mass Grocery Retail Indicators, 2005-2013 (US$bn)
- Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Sector, 2007 And 2017 (%)
- Industry Developments
Consumer Electronics
- Singapore Consumer Electronics SWOT
- Singapore Electronics Industry SWOT
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Singapore’s Consumer Electronics Overview , 2006-2013
- Industry Developments
Automotives
- Singapore Autos SWOT
- Market Overview
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: New Vehicles Registered In Singapore, 2007-2013
- Industry Developments
Country Snapshot: Singapore Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2000-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2000-2004
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Sources
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