Turkey Agribusiness Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, November 2009, Pages: 42
Turkey Agribusiness service provides proprietary medium term price forecasts for key commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, soy and milk; in addition to newly-researched competitive intelligence on leading agribusiness producers, traders and suppliers; in-depth analysis of latest industry developments; and essential industry context on Turkey's agribusiness service.
The Turkish economic outlook for 2010 is predicted to be much more favourable than the previous year, with real year-on-year (y-o-y) GDP growth of 3.4% forecast by BMI. In addition to the continued efforts of the Turkish government to reform the regulatory framework for EU accession and an imminent pick up in export demand, 2010 will start a notable production spike across the agricultural sphere. The Turkey Agribusiness Report Q110 focuses on these dynamics and their implications for sector growth in the new outlook period up to 2014.
As we progress through the outlook period we expect grains production to increase markedly particularly corn, which we forecast to expand by 40% by 2014. Production will benefit from increased investment and more favourable weather - some relief from the drought that has ravaged the region, including Syria and Iraq. Sugar, rice and livestock are other categories where double-digit growth is forecast to 2014 and emphasises Turkey's reputation as one of the most agriculturally diverse and productive nations.
Despite positive growth largely predicted forecast to flourish across the board in production, the outlook for consumption is slightly less bullish. We predict consumption in most categories to lag production growth through to 2014 due to a slower bounce in consumer confidence. Only in the consumption of barley and fresh milk is demand expected to outweigh supply to the end of the outlook period.
As the outlook progresses we can expect to see a higher level of investment in agriculture, particularly as the industry harmonises the regulatory framework in preparation for EU membership. Although the government has been slowly extracting itself from grain marketing since the 1990s in line with its objectives of market liberalisation and privatisation, farmers still continue to receive support through input subsidies, as well as below-market interest rates for loans and fertiliser.
While most wheat is traded privately, the market is still regulated through the Turkish Grain Board (TMO), which sets the annual procurement prices for all grains. The TMO then buys grains at these prices from producers who are unable to obtain a higher price on the open market. Through its position the TMO monopolises the import of certain key commodities, which it uses as a mechanism to help control domestic prices. Turkey's EU accession ambitions make this type of intervention increasingly untenable and we expect an easing of such measures as we progress through to 2014.
Regarding the growing sentiment for organic produce among consumers in the developed world, Minister for Agriculture Mehment Mehdi Eker says Turkey has roughly 1mn hectares available for organic farming, which will lend itself well to said method of farming as the global recession dissipates.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Turkey Agricultural SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Turkey Grains Outlook
- Table: Turkey Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Turkey Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Turkey Barley Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Turkey Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Turkey Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Turkey Barley Production, Consumption & Trade
- Turkey Livestock Outlook
- Table: Turkey Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Turkey Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Turkey Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Turkey Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
- Turkey Rice Outlook
- Table: Turkey Rice Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Turkey Rice Production, Consumption & Trade
- Turkey Sugar Outlook
- Table: Turkey Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Turkey Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
Competitive Landscape
- Table: Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders
- Table: Agribusiness Suppliers
- Table: Integrated Agricultural Producers
Commodity Price Analysis
- Grains Update
- Corn
- Table: Corn
- Rice
- Table: Rice
- Soy
- Table: Soybean
- Wheat
- Table: Wheat
- Softs Update
- Cocoa
- Table: Cocoa
- Coffee
- Table: Coffee
- Milk
- Table: Milk
- Sugar
- Table: Sugar
Downstream Supply Chain Analysis
- Industry Forecast Scenario – Drink
- Hot Drinks
- Food Consumption Indicators -- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2005-2014
- Canned Food
- Canned Food Value/Volume Sales -- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2005-2014
- Confectionery
- Confectionery Value/Volume Sales -- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2005-2014
- Trade
- Trade Indicators (Food, Drink & Tobacco) -- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2005-2014
- Industry Forecast Scenario – Retail
- Industry Forecast Scenario – Retail
- Turkey Mass Grocery Retail Sales by Format - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format (%) -- Historical Data & Forecasts
- Macroeconomic Forecast
- Table: Turkey - Economic Activity
Industry Forecast
- Global Cotton Outlook
- Table: Global Cotton Production & Consumption
- Table: Global Cotton Production & Consumption
BMI Forecast Modelling
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
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