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4Q09 Algeria Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 – 2013
IE Market Research Corp, Nov 2009, Pages: 118
The Algerian wireless market will have 34.5 million subscribers in 2013 with Djezzy taking market share of 54.1%
IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Algeria provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Algerian wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. The publisher provides five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. They also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Algeria include: Djezzy GSM, Mobilis, and Nedjma (Wataniya Telecom). The publisher's Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. The publisher's forecasts are based on their proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Executive Summary
Subscriber growth in Algeria's wireless market has turned negative
- 1.6% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009
ARPU levels declined at Djezzy and Nedjma in the latest quarter
- 5.0% industry average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009
Djezzy's EBITDA margin remains strong, but its EBITDA growth was negative in the latest quarter
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in Algeria to reach 34.5 million in 2013
- The publisher's forecasting model predicts that total wireless subscribers in Algeria will increase from 27.1 million in 2008 to 34.5 million in 2013.
- The largest operator in the country will continue to be Djezzy. The publisher expect that its subscriber base will increase from 14.1 million in 2008 to 18.6 million in 2013.
- The publisher also expect that the numbers of mobile subscribers at Mobilis and Nedjma will reach 9.6 million and 6.2 million respectively by the end of 2013.
Djezzy will continue to have above-50% subscriber market share
- The publisher's model predicts that Djezzy's subscriber market share will increase from 52.0% in 2008 to 54.1% in 2013.
- The publisher forecast that market shares of Mobilis and Nedjma will be approximately 27.9% and 18.0% in 2013.
ARPU level will be stabilizing from 2009 to 2013
- The publisher's model predicts that the industry average monthly ARPU will increase slightly from US$ 8.23 in 2008 to US$ 8.42 in 2013.
- The publisher expect that, in 2013, monthly ARPUs at Djezzy, Mobilis, and Nedjma will be approximately US$ 12, US$ 3, and US$ 7 respectively.
EBITDA margins at Djezzy will remain strong over the next five years
- Djezzy continues to be one of the most profitable operators in the region of Middle East and Africa (among the ones that the publisher covers).The publisher continues to believe that Djezzy will enjoy EBITDA margins of above 60% over the forecast period.
- According to the publisher's model, Djezzy's EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will be approximately 60.7% in 2013. In comparison, they expect that Nedjma's EBITDA margin will be about 20%.
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