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4Q09 Argentina Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 – 2013
IE Market Research Corp, Nov 2009, Pages: 118
Argentina will have 56 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with market share of CTI increasing to 40.8%
IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Argentina provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Argentinean wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Argentina include: Telecom Argentina S.A., Movistar Argentina (Telefonica S.A.), CTI (America Movil S.A.B. DE C.V.), and Nextel Communications Argentina S.A. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Executive Summary
Subscriber growth continues to be strong in Argentina's wireless market, but it is slowing down
+11.8% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009
The operator-wide average ARPU level is increasing in Argentina
+5.3% industry average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009
Minutes of Use per Subscriber are increasing across operators
+9.2% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 2Q.2009
Argentina's operators enjoy strong EBITDA growth
+34.0% industry average EBITDA growth in 2Q.2009
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in Argentina to reach 56 million in 2013
- We forecast that total wireless subscribers in Argentina will increase from 43.6 million in 2008 to 56.0 million in 2013.
- We expect that CTI (America Movil) will continue to be the largest mobile operator in Argentina. Our model predicts that its subscriber base will increase from 15.2 million in 2008 to 22.9 million in 2013.
- We also forecast that Telecom Argentina will have 16.6 million subscribers, and Movistar Argentina will have 15.5 million subscribers in 2013.
- Despite its high ARPU level, Nextel will also be gaining subscribers over the next five years. We expect that Nextel will have 1.07 million mobile subscribers by the end of 2013.
CTI's subscriber market share will be rising over the next five years
- Given the latest quarter numbers, our model predicts that CTI's subscriber market share will increase from 34.9% in 2008 to 40.8% in 2013.
- On the other hand, we forecast that Movistar Argentina's market share will decline from 34.0% in 2008 to 27.7% in 2013 while Telecom Argentina's market share will remain at approximately 30% over the next several years.
ARPU levels in Argentina's wireless market will be stable from 2009 to 2013
- We forecast that the industry average monthly ARPU will change only slightly from ARS 40.15 in 2008 to ARS 40.31 in 2013.
- Our model predicts that CTI will continue to have the lowest ARPU level in the country with an expected monthly ARPU of ARS 34.01 in 2013.
- We expect that monthly ARPU at Telecom Argentina will rise from ARS 40.48 to ARS 46.97 and monthly ARPU at Movistar Argentina will increase from ARS 40.04 to ARS 45.06 over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
- Nextel's ARPU level will remain the highest in Argentina with an expected monthly ARPU of ARS 161.29 in 2013.
EBITDA margins will be improving in Argentina's mobile operator space
- We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will increase from 32.8% in 2008 to 36.5% in 2013.
- According to our model, EBITDA margins at Telecom Argentina, Movistar Argentina, CTI, and Nextel will be 41.9%, 35.8%, 34.7% and 31.4% respectively in 2013.
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