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4Q09 Brazil Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 – 2013
IE Market Research Corp, Nov 2009, Pages: 118
The Brazilian wireless market will have 217.7 million subscribers in 2013 with TIM Participações taking market share of 24.5%
IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Brazil provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Brazilian wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. The publisher provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. The publisher also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Brazil include: Vivo Participacoes SA, TIM Participacoes SA, Claro S.A. (America Movil S.A.B. DE C.V.), Tele Norte Leste Participacoes (Oi), and NII Holdings, Inc. The publisher’s Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. The publisher’s forecasts are based on The publisher’s proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Executive Summary
Subscriber growth remains strong in Brazil's mobile operator space
+20.1% industry-average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009
ARPU levels are decreasing in Brazil
-10.6% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009
Minutes of Use per Subscriber decreased across operators in the latest quarter
The industry average MOU/Sub growth of -19.1% in 2Q.2009
Strong EBITDA growth at Vivo and NII Holdings in the latest quarter
The operator-wide average EBITDA growth was +19.0% in 2Q.2009
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in Brazil to reach 217.7 million in 2013
- According to The publisher’s forecasting model, total wireless subscribers in Brazil will increase from 152.5 million in 2008 to 217.7 million in 2013.
- Vivo will continue to be the largest mobile operator in Brazil. The publisher forecast that Vivo's subscriber base will increase from 44.9 million in 2008 to 61.1 million in 2013.
- The publisher’s model also predicts that, by the end of 2013, TIM will have 53.2 million subscribers, Claro will have 54.3 million subscribers, and Tele Norte Leste (Oi) will have 44.7 million subscribers.
Market shares of major operators will be stable over the next five years
- The publisher forecast that Vivo's subscriber market share will decline slightly from 29.5% in 2008 to 28.1% in 2013.
- The second largest operator in Brazil will be Claro with an expected subscriber market share of 25.0% in 2013.
- The publisher’s model predicts that market shares at TIM and Tele Norte Leste (Oi) will be 24.5% and 20.5% respectively in 2013.
Monthly ARPUs in Brazil will be stabilizing from 2009 to 2013
- The publisher forecast that the industry average monthly ARPU will decline slightly from BRL 27.92 in 2008 to BRL 26.65 in 2013.
- The publisher expect that Vivo will see its monthly ARPU decline from BRL 28.03 in 2008 to BRL 27.15 in 2013.
- NII Holdings will continue to charge the highest levels of tariffs over the coming years. The publisher expect that its monthly ARPU will remain at approximately BRL 124 from 2009 to 2013.
EBITDA margins will improve at Vivo and TIM over the next several years
- The publisher forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will rise from 25.6% in 2008 to 27.2% in 2013.
- The most profitable operator in Brazil will continue to be Vivo, and The publisher expect that Vivo's EBITDA margin will increase from 29.4% in 2008 to 38.8% in 2013.
- The publisher also expect TIM to see its EBITDA margin increase from 22.2% to 27.4% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
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2Q11 Latin America Mobile Operator Forecast, 2011 - 2015
4Q09 Global Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013
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