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4Q09 Chile Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 – 2013
IE Market Research Corp, Nov 2009, Pages: 118
Chile will have 20.7 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with Empresa Nacional de Telecomunicaciones (Entel) taking market share of 33.7%
IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Chile provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Chilean wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. The publisher provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. The publisher also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Chile include: Movistar Chile (Telefonica S.A.), Empresa Nacional de Telecomunicaciones SA (Entel), and Claro S.A. (America Movil S.A.B. DE C.V.). The publisher’s Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. The publisher’s forecasts are based on The publisher’s proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Executive Summary
Subscriber growth is slowing down in Chile's wireless market
+7.1% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009
ARPU growth was negative across operators in the latest quarter
-11.3% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009
Minutes of Use per Subscriber are increasing in Chile
+5.9% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 2Q.2009
EBITDA is declining at Entel and Claro
Industry average EBITDA growth of -3.6% in 2Q.2009
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in Chile to reach 20.7 million in 2013
- The publisher forecast that total mobile subscribers in Chile will increase from 15.9 million in 2008 to 20.7 million in 2013.
- Movistar Chile will continue to be the largest mobile operator in Chile. The publisher expect that Movistar's subscriber base will increase from 6.88 million in 2008 to 8.99 million in 2013.
- Also, The publisher forecast that Entel will have 6.99 million subscribers and Claro will have 4.75 million subscribers by the end of 2013.
Claro's subscriber market share will be increasing over the next five years
- The publisher’s model forecasts that Claro's subscriber market share will be increasing from 18.9% in 2008 to 22.9% in 2013.
- Movistar Chile's market share will also increase slightly from 43.3% in 2008 to 43.4% in 2013.
- On the other hand, The publisher expect that Entel will see its subscriber market share drop from 37.8% in 2008 to 33.7% in 2013.
ARPUs expected to stabilize in Chile's mobile operator space
- The publisher’s forecasting model does not predict significant ARPU declines over the next several years. The publisher expect that Movistar Chile's monthly ARPU level will be maintained at approximately CLP 8,300 from 2009 to 2013.
- Entel will continue to receive higher ARPUs than Movistar Chile. The publisher expect that Entel's monthly ARPU level will decline from CLP 10,319 in 2008 to CLP 9,394 in 2013.
- Claro will continue to set its ARPU level lower than those of its competitors. The publisher forecast that Claro's monthly ARPU will decline from CLP 6,724 in 2008 to CLP 5,656 in 2013.
Entel will continue to enjoy higher EBITDA margins than Movistar and Claro
- The publisher’s model predicts that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will increase from 34.6% in 2008 to 36.0% in 2013.
- The publisher expect that Entel's EBITDA margins will continue to be higher than those of Movistar Chile and Claro. According to The publisher’s forecasting model, EBITDA margins at Movistar Chile, Entel, and Claro will be 39.8%, 40.8% and 13.8% respectively in 2013.
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