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4Q09 Colombia Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 – 2013
IE Market Research Corp, Nov 2009, Pages: 118
Colombia will have 48.8 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with market share of Tigo Colombia increasing to 11.3%
IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Colombia provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Colombian wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Colombia include: Comcel (America Movil S.A.B de C.V.), Movistar Colombia (Telefonica S.A.), and Tigo Colombia (Millicom International Cellular S.A.). Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Executive Summary
Subscriber growth is slowing down in Colombia's wireless market
+7.6% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009
Negative ARPU growth continues across operators
-13.0% industry average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009
Minutes of Use per Subscriber is increasing at Comcel
+6.1% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 2Q.2009
Negative EBITDA growth at Movistar Colombia in the latest quarter
Industry average EBITDA growth of -10.9% in 2Q.2009
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in Colombia will rise to 48.8 million in 2013
- We forecast that total mobile subscribers in Colombia will increase from 40.7 million in 2008 to 48.8 million in 2013.
- Our model predicts that Comcel's subscriber base will increase from 27.4 million in 2008 to 31.8 million in 2013.
- We also expect that, by the end of 2013, Movistar Colombia will have 11.6 million subscribers and Tigo Colombia will have 5.5 million subscribers.
Tigo Colombia's subscriber market share will be increasing over the next five years
- Although Comcel will continue to be the largest mobile operator in Colombia, we expect that its subscriber market share will decline from 67.4% in 2008 to 65.0% in 2013.
- We forecast that Movistar Colombia's market share will also decrease from 24.5% in 2008 to 23.6% in 2013.
- Instead, our model predicts that Tigo Colombia's market share will increase from 8.1% to 11.3% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
ARPUs in Colombia's mobile operator space will decline from 2009 to 2013
- Our model predicts that the industry average monthly ARPU in Colombia will decline from COP 18,454 in 2008 to COP 16,887 in 2013.
- We think that Tigo Colombia's ARPU will continue to be higher than ARPUs at Comcel and Movistar Colombia.
- We forecast that monthly ARPUs at Comcel, Movistar Colombia, and Tigo Colombia will be COP 16,369, COP 17,554, and COP 18,504 respectively in 2013.
Comcel will continue to enjoy higher level of profitability than Movistar Colombia and Tigo Colombia over the next several years
- We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will increase from 38.5% in 2008 to 40.4% in 2013.
- At the operator level, Comcel will continue to enjoy higher profitability than Movistar Colombia and Tigo Colombia. We expect that EBITDA margins at Comcel, Movistar Colombia, and Tigo Colombia will be 48.5%, 26.0%, and 23.9% respectively in 2013.
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