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4Q09 Egypt Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 – 2013
IE Market Research Corp, Nov 2009, Pages: 118
Egypt will have 81.4 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with market share of ECMS (Mobinil) declining to 42.7%
IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Egypt provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for Egypt’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. The publisher provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. The publisher also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Egypt include: The Egyptian Company for Mobile Services (Mobinil), Vodafone Group Plc, and Etisalat (Emirates Telecommunications Corporation). The publisher’s Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. The publisher’s forecasts are based on The publisher’s proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Executive Summary
Subscriber growth in Egypt's wireless market remains strong
+38.1% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009
ARPUs continue declining in Egypt's mobile operator space
-13.2% industry average ARPU growth 2Q.2009
Minutes of Use per Subscriber are stabilizing
The industry average MOU/Sub growth of 0% in 2Q.2009
Both ECMS and Vodafone enjoyed double-digit EBITDA growth rates in the latest quarter
+29.7% industry-average EBITDA growth in 2Q.2009
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in Egypt to reach 81.4 million in 2013
- The publisher forecast that total wireless subscribers in Egypt will increase from 40.9 million in 2008 to 81.4 million in 2013.
- ECMS (Mobinil) will continue to be the largest mobile operator in Egypt. The publisher’s model predicts that ECMS (Mobinil)'s number of subscribers will increase from 20.1 million in 2008 to 34.8 million in 2013.
- The publisher also expect that, by the end of 2013, Vodafone will have 30.8 million subscribers and Etisalat will have 15.9 million subscribers.
Vodafone and ECMS (Mobinil) will be losing market shares to Etisalat over the next five years
- The publisher’s model predicts that ECMS's share of subscribers will decline from 49.2% in 2008 to 42.7% in 2013.
- Vodafone's subscriber market share will also decline from its 43.1% in 2008 to 37.8% in 2013.
- Instead, The publisher forecast that Etisalat's subscriber market share will rise from 7.7% in 2008 to 19.5% in 2013.
ARPUs in Egypt will be declining slightly from 2009 to 2013
- The publisher’s forecasting model predicts that ECMS (Mobinil) and Vodafone will see their ARPU levels decline over the next five years.
- The publisher forecast that Vodafone's ARPU level will decline from EGP 59.58 to EGP 47.65 while ECMS's ARPU declines from EGP 46.00 to EGP 41.54 over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
Profitability at Vodafone will improve over the next five years
- The publisher forecast that Vodafone's EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will improve from 47.8% in 2008 to 53.8% in 2013.
- On the other hand, The publisher expect that ECMS's EBITDA margin will remain stable at approximately 47%.
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