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4Q09 Indonesia Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 – 2013
IE Market Research Corp, Nov 2009, Pages: 118
Indonesia will have 208.2 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with market share of Telkomsel rising to 55.0%
IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Indonesia provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Indonesian wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. The publisher provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. The publisher also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Indonesia include: PT Telekomunikasi Selular (Telkomsel), PT Satelit Palapa Indonesia (Satelindo), PT Excelcomindo Pratama Tbk (Excelcomindo), Telkom Flexi, and StarOne. The publisher’s Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. The publisher’s forecasts are based on The publisher’s proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Executive Summary
Subscriber growth remains strong in Indonesia
+23.9% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009
ARPUs continue declining across operators in Indonesia's wireless market
-14.0% industry average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009
Despite low ARPU and high churn, EBITDA margins in Indonesia are quite strong
57.7% industry average EBITDA margin in 2Q.2009
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in Indonesia to reach 208.2 million in 2013
- During the forecast period from 2008 to 2013, The publisher expect the subscriber base in Indonesia to increase from 135.7 million in 2008 to 208.2 million in 2013.
- Telkomsel will continue to be the largest wireless operator in Indonesia. Given the latest quarter numbers, The publisher’s model predicts that Telkomsel's subscriber base will increase from 61.9 million in 2008 to 114.5 million in 2013.
- Also, The publisher expect that Satelindo will have 38.4 million subscribers and Excelcomindo will have 33.2 million subscribers by the end of 2013.
Telkomsel's subscriber market share will be increasing over the next five years
- The publisher’s model predicts that Telkomsel's market share (by subscribers) will increase from 45.6% in 2008 to 55.0% in 2013.
- The publisher also expect that Telekom Flexi's share of total subscribers will increase from 7.0% in 2008 to 10.1% in 2013.
- In contrast, The publisher forecast that Satelindo will see its market share decline from 27.0% to 18.4% and Excelcomindo's share will decline from 19.7% to 16.0% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
Telkomsel will continue to enjoy higher ARPUs than its competitors from 2009 to 2013
- The publisher’s model predicts that the industry average monthly ARPU will decline from IDR 46,733 in 2008 to IDR 34,485 in 2013.
- The publisher expect that Telkomsel's ARPU level will remain the highest in the country although The publisher expect that its monthly ARPU will still decline from IDR 59,124 in 2008 to IDR 40,335 in 2013.
The publisher are forecasting slightly decreasing EBITDA margins for Excelcomindo
- According to The publisher’s model, Excelcomindo's EBITDA margin (EBITDA/reported revenue) will decrease from 52.6% in 2008 to 48.8% in 2013.
- The publisher expect that EBITDA margins at Telkomsel and Satelindo will remain higher than Excelcomindo's at 66.8% and 50.5% respectively in 2013.
Also available
1Q09 Indonesia Mobile Operator Forecast, 2008 – 2013
3Q09 Indonesia Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013
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