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4Q09 Israel Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 – 2013
IE Market Research Corp, Nov 2009, Pages: 118
The Israeli wireless market will have 11 million subscribers in 2013 with market share of Cellcom increasing to 35.6%
IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Israel provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Israeli wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. The publisher provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. The publisher also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Israel include: Cellcom Israel Ltd., Pelephone, Partner Communications Co. Ltd., and Mirs Communications Ltd. The publisher’s Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. The publisher’s forecasts are based on The publisher’s proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Executive Summary
Subscriber growth in Israel is slowing down
+2.9% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009
Negative ARPU growth for Cellcom and Partner in the latest quarter
-2.3% industry average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009
Minutes of Use per Subscriber declined across operators
The industry average MOU/Sub growth of -5.3% in 2Q.2009
Strong EBITDA growth at Pelephone in the latest quarter
+8.3% industry average EBITDA growth in 2Q.2009
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in Israel to exceed 11 million in 2013
- According to The publisher’s forecasting model, the number of mobile subscriber accounts in Israel will increase from 9.13 million in 2008 to 11.07 million in 2013.
- The largest operator will continue to be Cellcom; The publisher forecast that Cellcom's subscriber base will increase from 3.19 million to 3.94 million over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
- The publisher expect that, by the end of 2013, Pelephone will have 3.24 million subscribers and Partner will have 3.49 million subscribers.
Cellcom's subscriber market share will be increasing over the next five years
- The publisher forecast that Cellcom's subscriber market share will increase from 34.9% in 2008 to 35.6% in 2013.
- Although Partner will continue to be the second largest mobile operator in Israel after Cellcom, The publisher expect that Partner's subscriber market share will decline slightly from 31.7% in 2008 to 31.5% in 2013.
- On the other hand, Pelephone's share of subscribers will rise from 29.0% in 2008 to 29.3%, according to The publisher’s model.
ARPU levels will be stabilizing from 2009 to 2013
- The publisher think that overall ARPU declines in Israel have stopped. The publisher’s model predicts that the industry average monthly ARPU will change from ILS 140.36 in 2008 to ILS 142.48 in 2013.
- The publisher expect that monthly ARPUs at Cellcom, Pelephone, and Partner will be approximately ILS 144, ILS 131, and ILS 151 respectively in 2013.
The publisher are forecasting improvements in EBITDA margins across operators
- The publisher forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will improve from 35.0% in 2008 to 39.6% in 2013.
- The publisher are forecasting that Cellcom will be enjoying the highest EBITDA margin in the country at 40.1% in 2013 (compared to 37.5% in 2008).
- Pelephone's EBITDA margin will also improve from 30.9% in 2008 to 39.9% in 2013, according to The publisher’s model.
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3Q11 Israel Mobile Operator Forecast, 2011 - 2015: Israel to have 10.6 million mobile subscriber connections in 2015 with Cellcom taking 35% market share
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4Q09 Middle East and North Africa Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013
2Q10 Israel Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2014: Israel will have 10.5 Million Mobile Phone Subscribers in 2014 with Cellcom Taking Market Share of 37.3%
3Q10 Israel Mobile Operator Forecast, 2010 - 2014
1Q11 Israel Mobile Operator Forecast, 2010 - 2015: Israel to have 10.6 million mobile subscriber connections in 2015
2Q11 Middle East Mobile Operator Forecast, 2011 - 2015
1Q09 Israel Mobile Operator Forecast, 2008 – 2013: Pelephone to Gain Market Share from Cellcom and Partner from 2009 To 2013
3Q10 Middle East Mobile Operator Forecast, 2010 - 2014
4Q10 Middle East Mobile Operator Forecast, 2010 - 2014
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