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Mozambique Third Mobile Licence
Onda Analytics Limited, Nov 2009, Pages: 30
The Mozambican government is set to launch a tender for the third mobile licence in Mozambique by the end of 2009. This presents an opportunity for mobile operators looking to expand their footprint across sub-Saharan Africa and compete with mcel (the mobile arm of incumbent Telecomunicaçöes de Moçambique) and the second entrant, Vodacom. With market penetration still relatively low and set to grow strongly over the medium term, the opportunity is clear. However, Mozambique has low average income levels and hence low ARPU, meaning that the profitability of a third operator is open to question.
This report considers the opportunity for a third mobile operator in Mozambique, taking into account the current and future state of the market. The report analyses both the current socioeconomic and telecoms market factors in Mozambique. In includes forecasts for the evolution of market penetration and ARPU based on the current trends, cross country benchmarks and expected changes in the market dynamics following the entrance of a third operator. Revenue forecasts are produced for both the new entrant and mobile market as a whole. The financial viability of a third operator is analysed through consideration of its expected revenues and the experience of second entrant, Vodacom.
Key questions answered
- What is the current state of the telecoms market in Mozambique?
- How large is the addressable market in Mozambique and how will it change in future?
- How will the mobile market develop over time?
- What broadband infrastructure is in place in Mozambique?
- What main factors will have the greatest impact on the third entrant’s market share?
- How can a third entrant best ensure profitability?
Key data
- Socio-economic indicators for Mozambique (population, age distribution, GDP growth)
- Historical mobile subscribers and penetration in Mozambique, 2005-2009
- Historical mobile ARPU in Mozambique, 2006-2009
- Historical total mobile revenues in Mozambique, 2006-2009
- Historical EBITDA margins and market shares for mobile operators in Mozambique, 2005-2009
- Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration in Mozambique, 2009-2015
- Forecast mobile ARPU in Mozambique, 2009-2015
- Forecast total mobile revenue in Mozambique, 2009-2015
- Forecast third entrant subscribers, ARPU and revenue, 2009-2015
Countries Covered:
- Mozambique
- Malawi
- Madagascar
- Burkina Faso
- Uganda
- Tanzania
- Zambia
- DRC
- Ivory Coast
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