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4Q09 Mexico Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 – 2013
IE Market Research Corp, Nov 2009, Pages: 118
The Mexican wireless market will have 107.8 million subscribers in 2013 with market share of Telcel declining to 71.1%
IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Mexico provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Mexican wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Mexico include: Telcel (America Movil S.A.B. DE C.V.), Iusacell (Grupo Iusacell SAB de CV), Movistar Mexico (Telefonica S.A.), Unefon S.A., and Nextel International. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Executive Summary
Subscriber growth in Mexico's wireless market is slowing down
+9.5% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009
Industry average monthly ARPU continues to decline in Mexico
-2.6% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009
Minutes of Use per Subscriber is increasing at Telcel
+2.3% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 2Q.2009
Positive EBITDA growth across operators in the latest quarter
+12.5% industry average EBITDA growth in 2Q.2009
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in Mexico to reach 107.8 million in 2013
- We expect that total wireless subscribers in Mexico will increase from 77.9 million in 2008 to 107.8 million in 2013.
- Given the latest quarter numbers, we forecast that the largest operator, Telcel, will see its subscriber base increase from 56.4 million in 2008 to 76.6 million in 2013.
- Movistar Mexico will remain in the second place with 22.9 million wireless subscribers in 2013.
- We also expect that Nextel International will have 4.49 million subscribers and Iusacell will have 3.82 million subscribers by the end of 2013.
Telcel will continue to have subscriber market share of above 71%
- Telcel will continue to lead Mexico in market shares although our model predicts that its subscriber market share will decline slightly from 72.3% in 2008 to 71.1% in 2013.
- In contrast, we now expect that Movistar Mexico's market share will increase from 19.7% in 2008 to 21.2% in 2013.
- We expect that market shares of Nextel and Iusacell will be 4.2% and 3.5% respectively in 2013.
ARPUs will be stabilizing in the Mexican wireless market from 2009 to 2013
- Movistar Mexico will continue to receive the lowest ARPU (Average Revenue per User) in the country, but we forecast that its ARPU level will increase from MXN 133.16 in 2008 to MXN 144.30 in 2013.
- On the other hand, we expect that Telcel's ARPU will fall slightly from MXN 173.54 to MXN 171.45 over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
- Nextel, which receives the highest level of ARPU in Mexico, will see its monthly ARPU decrease from MXN 777.13 in 2008 to MXN 678.47 in 2013, according to our model.
Telcel will continue to enjoy higher EBITDA margins than Iusacell, Movistar Mexico, and Nextel
- We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will increase from 44.9% in 2008 to 48.5% in 2013.
- Telcel will continue to enjoy a higher level of profitability than the other operators. We expect that Telcel's EBITDA margin will increase from 52.4% in 2008 to 54.7% in 2013.
- In comparison, EBITDA margins at Iusacell, Movistar Mexico, and Nextel International will be 20.0%, 36.5%, and 45.0% respectively in 2013, according to our model.
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