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4Q09 Morocco Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 – 2013
IE Market Research Corp, Nov 2009, Pages: 118
Morocco will have 35.9 million wireless subscribers in 2013 with market share of Maroc Telecom declining to 46.7%
IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Morocco provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for Morocco’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. The publisher provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. The publisher also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Morocco include: Maroc Telecom SA, Meditel (Medi Telecom), and Wana. The publisher’s Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. The publisher’s forecasts are based on The publisher’s proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Executive Summary
Subscriber growth is slowing down in Morocco's wireless market
+16.1% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009
ARPU levels continue to decline in Morocco
-2.1% industry average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009
Minutes of Use per Subscriber remains low in Morocco
-4.1% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 2Q.2009
Negative EBITDA growth at Maroc Telecom and Meditel in the latest quarter
-1.3% industry average EBITDA growth in 2Q.2009
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in Morocco to reach 35.9 million in 2013
- The publisher forecast that total mobile subscribers in Morocco will increase from 24.9 million in 2008 to 35.9 million in 2013.
- The publisher expect that Maroc Telecom will continue to be the largest wireless carrier in Morocco over the next five years with 16.8 million subscribers in 2013.
- The publisher’s model also forecasts that Meditel will remain in the second place with 12.6 million subscribers in 2013 while Wana finishes third with 6.5 million in 2013.
Maroc Telecom will lose subscriber market share to Meditel and Wana over the next five years
- Maroc Telecom will maintain its position as the biggest mobile operator in Morocco over the next several years. However, The publisher expect that Maroc Telecom will be losing its market share to Meditel and Wana over the forecast period. The publisher’s model predicts that Maroc Telecom's subscriber market share will decline from 58.2% in 2008 to 46.7% in 2013.
- In contrast, The publisher expect that Meditel's subscriber market share will increase from 31.5% to 35.1% and Wana's market share will increase from 10.4% to 18.2% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
Maroc Telecom will continue to receive higher ARPU than Meditel
- Maroc Telecom will continue to lead Morocco in ARPU, but The publisher’s model predicts that its monthly ARPU will still decline from MAD 100.03 in 2008 to MAD 94.99 in 2013.
- On the other hand, The publisher forecast that Meditel's monthly ARPU level will decline from MAD 64.02 in 2008 to MAD 50.67 in 2013.
EBITDA margins will deteriorate in Morocco's mobile operator space over the next several years
- The publisher forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will decline from 59.7% in 2008 to 56.0% in 2013. The publisher’s model predicts that Maroc Telecom's EBITDA margin will decrease from 64.2% in 2008 to 59.9% in 2013
- Also, The publisher expect that Meditel's EBITDA margin will fall from 43.6% in 2008 to 40.6% 2013.
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