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4Q09 New Zealand Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 – 2013
IE Market Research Corp, Nov 2009, Pages: 118
New Zealand will have 6.05 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with market share of Vodafone falling to 51.7%
IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on New Zealand provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for New Zealand’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. The publisher provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. The publisher also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for New Zealand include: Telecom New Zealand Limited (TCNZ), and Vodafone Group Plc. The publisher’s Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. The publisher’s forecasts are based on The publisher’s proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Executive Summary
Subscriber growth is slowing down in New Zealand's mobile operator space
+3.5% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009
Positive ARPU growth at Vodafone in the latest quarter
+3.7% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009
Minutes of Use per Subscriber are stabilizing
Industry average MOU/Sub of 190 minutes/month in 2Q.2009
TCNZ continues to suffer from negative EBITDA growth while Vodafone's EBITDA growth improves
+7.1% industry average EBITDA growth in 2Q.2009
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in New Zealand to exceed 6 million in 2013
- The publisher forecast that total subscribers in New Zealand will increase from 4.75 million in 2008 to 6.05 million in 2013.
- Both Vodafone and TCNZ will see their numbers of subscriber accounts increase over the next five years.
- The publisher’s model predicts that Vodafone will have 3.13 million subscribers and TCNZ will have 2.92 million mobile subscribers by the end of 2013.
Vodafone's subscriber market share will decline slightly over the next five years
- Vodafone will continue to lead New Zealand in market shares although The publisher expect that its market share will decline slightly over the next five years.
- The publisher’s forecasting model predicts that Vodafone's subscriber market share will decline from 52.4% in 2008 to 51.7% in 2013 while TCNZ's share increases from 47.6% in 2008 to 48.3% in 2013.
Vodafone's ARPU level will continue to be higher than TCNZ's
- The publisher expect that Vodafone's monthly ARPU will increase slightly over the next several years. The publisher’s model predicts that Vodafone's monthly ARPU will change from NZD 44.95 in 2008 to NZD 48.00 in 2013.
- TCNZ's monthly ARPU will be much lower than Vodafone's at NZD 29.13 in 2013, according to The publisher’s model.
EBITDA margins will decline slightly from 2009 to 2013
- The publisher think that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will fall slightly from 40.7% in 2008 to 39.5% in 2013.
- EBITDA margins at TCNZ and Vodafone will continue to be similar. The publisher forecast that TCNZ's EBITDA margin will be 38.4% and Vodafone's EBITDA margin will be 40.1% in 2013.
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4Q11 New Zealand Mobile Operator Forecast, 2012 - 2015: New Zealand to have 5.6 million mobile subscriber connections in 2015 with Vodafone taking 42% market share
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3Q10 New Zealand Mobile Operator Forecast, 2010 - 2014
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