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4Q09 Peru Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 – 2013
IE Market Research Corp, Nov 2009, Pages: 118
Peru will have 27.6 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with market share of Claro rising to 43.4%
IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Peru provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Peruvian wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. The publisher provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. The publisher also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Peru include: Movistar Perú (Telefonica, S.A.), Claro S.A. (America Movil S.A.B. DE C.V.), BellSouth, and Nextel Communications. The publisher’s Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. The publisher’s forecasts are based on The publisher’s proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Executive Summary
Double-digit subscriber growth continues in Peru, but growth is slowing down
+18.6% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009
ARPU growth levels continue falling across operators in Peru
Industry average ARPU growth of -8.4% in 2Q.2009
Strong EBITDA growth at Movistar Peru and Claro in the latest quarter
+15.9% industry-average EBITDA growth in 2Q.2009
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in Peru to reach 27.6 million in 2013
- According to The publisher’s forecasting model, the number of total wireless subscriber accounts in Peru will increase from 18.5 million in 2008 to 27.6 million in 2013.
- Movistar Peru will continue to be the largest mobile operator in Peru. The publisher expect that Movistar Peru's subscriber accounts will increase from 10.6 million in 2008 to 14.1 million in 2013.
- The publisher also forecast that Claro will have 11.9 million subscribers and Nextel will have 1.47 million subscribers by the end of 2013.
Movistar Peru's subscriber market share will be declining over the next five years
- Given the latest quarter numbers, The publisher’s model is now predicting that Movistar's market share in Peru will decline from 57.5% in 2008 to 51.3% in 2013.
- On the other hand, The publisher think that Claro's market share will increase from 38.9% in 2008 to 43.4% in 2013.
- The publisher also expect that Nextel's market share will be increasing from 3.6% in 2008 to 5.3% in 2013.
The publisher expect ARPU declines to continue in Peru from 2009 to 2013
- The publisher forecast that the industry average monthly ARPU (Average Revenue per User) in Peru will fall from PEN 27.23 in 2008 to PEN 24.19 in 2013.
- ARPU levels at Movistar Peru and Claro will be declining over the next several years to reach PEN 21.29 and PEN 21.02, respectively, in 2013.
- Although Nextel will continue to receive the highest level of ARPU in the country, The publisher expect that its ARPU level will still decline from PEN 94.73 in 2008 to PEN 78.95 in 2013.
Movistar Peru will continue to enjoy higher level of profitability than Claro and Nextel
- The publisher forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will improve from 30.8% in 2008 to 34.6% in 2013.
- The publisher expect that EBITDA margins at Movistar Peru will remain higher than EBITDA margins at Claro and Nextel over the next several years. The publisher’s model forecasts that EBITDA margins at Movistar Peru, Claro, and Nextel will be 38.9%, 33.5%, and 16.0% respectively in 2013.
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