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4Q09 Taiwan Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 – 2013
IE Market Research Corp, Nov 2009, Pages: 118
Taiwan will have 28.8 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with Chunghwa Telecom taking market share of 34.6%
IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Taiwan provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Taiwanese wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. The publisher provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. The publisher also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Taiwan include: Chunghwa Telecom Co., Ltd., Taiwan Mobile Co., Ltd., Far EasTone Telecommunications Co., Ltd., First International Telecom Corp. (Fitel), APT, and VIBO Telecom Inc. The publisher’s Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. The publisher’s forecasts are based on The publisher’s proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Executive Summary
Taiwan continues to enjoy stable wireless subscriber growth
+3.3% industry subscriber growth in 2Q.2009
ARPU levels continue declining in Taiwan
-6.1% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009
Minutes of Use per Subscriber are decreasing
-2.0% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 2Q.2009
Negative EBITDA growth at Chunghwa Telecom, Taiwan Mobile, and Far EasTone in the latest quarter
-6.7% industry average EBITDA growth in 2Q.2009
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in Taiwan to reach 28.8 million in 2013
- The publisher forecast that the number of total mobile subscriber accounts in Taiwan will increase from 25.5 million in 2008 to 28.8 million in 2013.
- Chunghwa Telecom will continue to be the largest operator in Taiwan; The publisher’s model predicts that Chunghwa Telecom's subscriber base will increase from 8.95 million in 2008 to 9.94 million in 2013.
- Taiwan Mobile will remain in the second place with 7.71 million subscribers in 2013, and Far EasTone will remain in the third place with 6.27 million subscribers in 2013.
Subscriber market shares of Chunghwa Telecom and Far EasTone will be declining over the next five years
- The publisher’s forecasting model predicts that subscriber market shares of Chunghwa Telecom and Far EasTone will be falling over the next several years to reach 34.6% and 21.8% respectively in 2013.
- In contrast, The publisher expect that Taiwan Mobile's market share will increase from 24.6% in 2008 to 26.8% in 2013.
- The publisher expect that Fitel, APT, and VIBO will maintain their market shares over the next five years. The publisher’s model predicts that their market shares will be approximately 4.2% (Fitel), 8.7% (APT), and 3.9% (VIBO) in 2013.
ARPU levels in Taiwan will be declining from 2009 to 2013
- The publisher’s model predicts that the industry average monthly ARPU will decline from TWD 733 in 2008 to TWD 668 in 2013. The publisher forecast that Data ARPU will account for 19.3% of this overall ARPU (i.e. Monthly Data ARPU will be approximately TWD 129) in 2013.
- The publisher forecast that monthly ARPUs at Chunghwa Telecom, Taiwan Mobile, and Far Eastone will be TWD 655, TWD 677, and TWD 679 respectively in 2013.
Chunghwa Telecom will continue to enjoy higher EBITDA margins than Taiwan Mobile and Far EasTone
- The publisher’s forecasting model predicts that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA / reported revenue) will decrease from 43.8% in 2008 to 39.0% in 2013.
- At the operator level, Chunghwa Telecom will continue to enjoy the highest profitability in Taiwan's mobile operator space. The publisher expect that Chunghwa Telecom's EBITDA margin will be about 49% from 2009 to 2013.
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4Q09 East Asia and Pacific Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013
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4Q09 Global Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013
3Q11 Kenya Mobile Operator Forecast, 2011 - 2015: Kenya to have 34.8 million mobile subscriber connections in 2015 with Bharti Airtel taking 15.5% market share
Taiwan Telecommunication Industry Report, 2009
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