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4Q09 Venezuela Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 – 2013
IE Market Research Corp, Nov 2009, Pages: 118
Venezuela will have 36.3 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with market share of Telvenco increasing to 25.8%
IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Venezuela provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Venezuelan wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. The publisher provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. The publisher also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Venezuela include: Movilnet (CA Nacional Telefonos de Venezuela (CANTV)), Movistar Venezuela (Telefonica S.A.), and Telvenco S.A. The publisher’s Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. The publisher’s forecasts are based on The publisher’s proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Executive Summary
Double-digit subscriber growth continues in Venezuela's mobile operator space, but growth is slowing down
+10.0% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009
ARPUs increased at Movilnet and Movistar Venezuela in the latest quarter
+13.2% industry average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009
Strong EBITDA growth across operators in the latest quarter
+38.2% industry average EBITDA growth in 2Q.2009
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
The number of total subscriber accounts in Venezuela to reach 36.3 million in 2013
- The publisher’s forecasting model predicts that the number of total subscriber accounts in Venezuela will increase from 28.2 million in 2008 to 36.3 million in 2013.
- The publisher forecast that subscriber bases at Movilnet, Movistar Venezuela, and Telvenco will rise to approximately 13.7 million, 13.2 million, and 9.4 million respectively in 2013.
Telvenco's subscriber market share will be increasing over the next five years
- The publisher expect that Telvenco's share of total subscribers will be increasing from 21.5% in 2008 to 25.8% in 2013.
- On the other hand, The publisher expect that Movilnet's subscriber market share will fall from 39.8% to 37.9% and Movistar Venezuela's market share will fall from 38.7% to 36.3% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
ARPU levels in Venezuela is to stabilize over the next several years
- Although ARPUs are declining in many wireless markets around the world, The publisher think that this is not the case in Venezuela. The publisher forecast that the industry average monthly ARPU will increase from VEF 39.46 in 2008 to VEF 43.95 in 2013.
- Movistar Venezuela will continue to receive the highest monthly ARPU among the Venezuelan operators. The publisher forecast that its monthly ARPU will increase to VEF 43.76 in 2013.
- On the other hand, Telvenco's monthly ARPU will remain much lower at approximately VEF 22 from 2009 to 2013.
Movistar Venezuela will continue to enjoy higher level of profitability than Movilnet and Telvenco
- The publisher forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will increase slightly from 38.9% in 2008 to 39.1% in 2013.
- The publisher expect that Movistar's EBITDA margin will continue to be higher than those of Movilnet and Telvenco. The publisher’s model predicts that EBITDA margins at Movilnet, Movistar Venezuela, and Telvenco will be 22.5%, 50.4%, and 37.2% respectively in 2013.
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