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Longhaus Australian Tech Index: Q2 2009
Longhaus, April 2009, Pages: 9
The Longhaus Australian Tech Index is a quarterly index based on a propriety model developed to measure the health of the Australian ICT economy. The model measures the Australian ICT economy from the following four (4) dimensions: a) demand forces including ICT spending and ICT importing, b) supply factors including influx volume of venture capital (VC) funding, c) strength of vendors indicated by market value, and employment capacity, and d) consumer factors including internet subscription rates. Collectively, these four (4) dimensions and their accompanying factors indicate the health of the Australian ICT economy. Finally by providing calculated weightings to these indicators and including heuristic views from Australian CIOs, the index provides important insights into both lag, lead and predictive indicators of the Australian technology economy. The Q2 2009 Longhaus CIO Confidence Poll surveyed 51 CIOsi from Australian enterprises with 100 or more employees.
The Longhaus Australian Tech Index lost 3.1% (or 4.6 points) in the first quarter to finish at 141.5 points. This represented the third consecutive quarterly fall. The decline is largely led by weakening performance of Australian ICT vendor dynamics, with ICT employment capability indices sinking 45%, and investor confidence slipping to 2006 levels. The 4.6 point decline in Q1 matches Longhaus’ optimistic forecast published in January. Looking forward, renewed concerns surrounding the global recession continues to hurt the confidence of the local ICT industry with the majority of the 51 respondents of the Longhaus CIO Confidence Poll anticipating further falls in overall ICT economy performance in the second quarter. The CIO confidence poll also indicated that new ICT project approvals will be cut at an unprecedented pace. However, this sharp fall will be slightly eased by CIO’s intention to maintain, or even increase their current workforce. Anticipated relief in employment cut-backs indicate that the first round wave of downsizing may be over. The aggregated forecast for Q2 is a further projected decline of between -0.9 (optimistic) to -3.6 point (pessimistic). While this represents a smaller overall net loss than Q1 the Australian ICT economy has not yet hit bottom, but instead is showing signs of a slowing decline. While Longhaus predict an upward swing to commence late in 2009, 75% of Australian CIOs do not foresee a turning point until well into Q2 2010.
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