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Longhaus Australian Tech Index: Q3 2009
Longhaus, Aug 2009, Pages: 10
The Longhaus Australian Tech Index is a quarterly index based on a propriety model developed to measure the health of the Australian ICT industry. The model measures the Australian ICT industry from the following four (4) dimensions: a) demand forces including ICT spending and ICT importing, b) supply factors including influx volume of venture capital (VC) funding, c) strength of vendors indicated by market value, and employment capacity, and d) consumer factors including internet subscription rates. Collectively, these four (4) dimensions and their accompanying factors indicate the health of the Australian ICT industry. Finally by providing calculated weightings to these indicators and including heuristic views from Australian CIOs, the index provides important insights into lag, lead and predictive indicators of the Australian technology economy. The Q3 2009 Longhaus CIO Confidence Poll surveyed 48 CIOsi from Australian enterprises with 100 or more employees.
The Longhaus Australian Tech Index lost 6.1% (or 8.7 points) to finish at 132.8 in Q2 2009. It was the fourth straight quarterly fall over the last two years. This latest decline was largely led by the deteriorating performance of ICT employment capability, with indices sinking 49% compared to the same period last year. Although investor confidence as measured by the index showed signs of recovery by growing 13 points, the overall index presented its worst quarterly performance in two years. The decline corresponded to the previous downward forecast derived from Longhaus’ Q209 CIO confidence poll, despite the sharp decline of 6.1% being beyond the expected fall of only 3.6%. Looking forward and amid the easing of downside risks within the global economy CIOs have, for the first time since the economic crisis, forecasted positive growth in Q3 2009 with 48 respondents anticipating slight gains of between 1.5% and 2.9% in Q3. The poll also indicated that funds previously frozen in late Q2 are likely to be rolled over to the new financial year with business project approvals increasing. Subsequently the growing number of business projects will act as the catalyst for a material improvement in ICT project approvals and consequently employment capability in Q4 2009. The aggregated forecast for Q3 is projected positively between 2.0 (pessimistic) to 3.8 (optimistic) points providing tangible evidence of green shoots in the Australian ICT economy. If indeed Q3 2009 marks the beginning of the rebound then Longhaus believe that following a serious of discrete adjustments, the index will start to gain firmly around Q2 2010 on its march towards the next peak in 2015 at around 220 points.
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