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Longhaus Australian Tech Index: Q4 2009
Longhaus, Nov 2009, Pages: 11
The Longhaus Australian Tech Index is a quarterly index based on a propriety model developed to measure the health of the Australian ICT industry. The model measures the Australian ICT industry from the following four (4) dimensions: a) demand forces including ICT spending and ICT importing, b) supply factors including influx volume of venture capital (VC) funding, c) strength of vendors indicated by market value, and employment capacity, and d) consumer factors including internet subscription rates. Collectively, these four (4) dimensions and their accompanying factors indicate the health of the Australian ICT industry. Finally by providing calculated weightings to these indicators and including heuristic views from Australian CIOs, the index provides important insights into lag, lead and predictive indicators of the Australian technology economy.
The Longhaus Australian Tech Index strengthened by 6.6% (or 8.8 points) to finish at 141.5 in Q3 2009. Following four straight quarterly falls, the Australian Tech Index has for the first time since its launch, recorded positive growth. This rally confirmed Longhaus’ Q3 2009 forecast based on our CIO Confidence Poll which predicted a rise in activity heading into the last half of 2009. Within the Index itself, all individual measurement indices scored positive growth, including gains in investor confidence and ICT exports contributing significantly to the positive outcome with gains of 16.7 and 13.4 points respectively. Although by far the most notable comeback was within the performance of ICT employment which rose 5.5 points, showing that the Australian ICT labour hire market had indeed commenced its revival during the Q2-Q3 period. According to the Q4 2009 Longhaus CIO Confidence Poll, the local human resource market can expect even more ICT permanent staff to be employed and steady contractor workforce growth between now and December.
Looking forward, amid the further easing of downside risks within the global economy and positive local ICT industry performance CIOs have again forecasted positive growth in Q4 2009 with the 47 respondents anticipating significant gains of between 4.9% and 9.2% in Q4 2009. Compared to the Q3 2009 positive forecast, CIOs are expecting even better economic performance in the months ahead. As predicted in the previous report, the growing number of business projects in Q3 will act as the catalyst for improvement in ICT project approvals and consequently employment in Q4 2009. The most recent poll reinforces this position with 40% of CIOs, the highest since the start of the poll, expecting to commence new ICT projects in the coming quarter.
The latest Longhaus Australian Tech Index forecast predicts positive growth of between 6.9 (pessimistic) to 13.1 (optimistic) points providing tangible evidence of green shoots in the Australian ICT economy. Aggregating previous forecast patterns and actual results, Longhaus believe the actual Q4 2009 Tech Index figure should land slightly below CIOs’ pessimistic forecast into the 140 - 145 range bringing the index back to Q4 2008 levels. Longhaus maintains its previous assertion that following a serious of discrete adjustments, the index will start to gain firmly around Q2 2010 on its march towards the next peak in 2015 at around 220 points.
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