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UK Retail: Christmas 2009 Forecast - What's in Store?
Verdict Research Limited, Nov 2009, Pages: 39
UK retailers are facing an unprecedented decline in the all-important Q4 sales period as a combination of unique factors come into play. The combination of recession, falling consumer confidence and capacity, and a VAT cut are all having a major impact on consumer retail expenditure. This report forecasts sales and winners per sector, with detailed analysis.
Scope:
- Q4 2009 spending trends; clothing & footwear, DIY, electricals, furniture, food & grocery,health & beauty, homewares, other sectors, online sales.
- Value, volume and inflation growth and spend per head in each sector with changes year-on-year.
- Unique survey of UK consumers' attitudes to spending in Q4 2009.
- Trends by value, volume and inflation Q4 2005-2009.
Highlights:
For the first time since Verdict's records began in 1989, we forecast retail expenditure will be down this Christmas. We estimate the market will shrink by 0.7% in Q4 2009 equivalent to £535.0m. But this conceals diverse trends in each sector.
As consumer expenditure includes tax, the 2.5 point cut in VAT has been a significant factor in the reduction in spending in non-food (food & grocery is largely VAT free). To maintain sales at last year's level, volume or prices would have to rise but overall both have declined and retailers compete aggressively to win share of a smaller market.
At least one in three consumers intend to cut back on their spending this Christmas, with family shoppers and those on low incomes the most nervous. At least 40.0% of consumers in the south and East Anglia, where the financial crisis has hit the hardest, are considering cutting back.
Reasons to Purchase:
- Measure your company's potential share of each sector and focus on most productive outcomes.
- Devise winning strategies to gain share of consumers' spending using unique survey of spending intentions.
- Benchmark your performance against the sector to devise future growth potential.
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