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Vietnam Oil and Gas Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, Nov 2009, Pages: 87
Vietnam Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Vietnam's oil and gas industry.
The latest Vietnam Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.59% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 4.33% of supply. Asia Pacific regional oil use of 21.40mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 25.44mn b/d in 2009. It should average 25.93mn b/d in 2010, then rise to around 28.99mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was just under 8.41mn b/d in 2001, and averaged an estimated 8.50mn b/d in 2009. It is set to increase to 8.59mn b/d by 2014. In 2001, the region was importing an average 12.99mn b/d of oil. This total had risen to an estimated 16.94mn b/d in 2009, and is forecast to reach 20.41mn b/d by 2014. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2014 the only net exporter will be Malaysia In terms of natural gas, in 2009 the region consumed an estimated 459bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 582bcm is targeted for 2014. Production of an estimated 378bcm in 2009 should reach 509bcm in 2014, but implies net imports easing from an estimated 81bcm in 2009 to 73bcm in 2013. This is in spite of many Asian gas producers being major exporters. Vietnam’s estimated share of gas consumption in 2009 was 2.40%, while its share of production is put at 2.91%. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 4.12%, with the country accounting for 4.72% of supply.
For 2009 as a whole, we have assumed an average OPEC basket price of US$59.00 per barrel (bbl), a 37.3% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). This represents an upgrade from the US$55.00/bbl forecast we were using in the previous quarter. For 2010, we expect to see a significant oil price recovery to US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to US$85.00/bbl in 2011 and to US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond.
For 2009, BMI has assumed a global average gasoline price of US$67.46/bbl, with the fuel having peaked in June at almost US$80.00/bbl. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 33.7%. The BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$70.59/bbl, assuming a monthly high above US$94/bbl in December 2009. The full-year outturn represents a 41.8% y-o-y fall. The annual jet price level for 2009 is estimated at US$68.45/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008. The 2009 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$52.66/bbl, down 39.7% from the previous year’s level. Vietnamese real GDP growth is estimated by BMI at 5.1% in 2009, down from the 2008 level of 6.2%.
We are assuming 7.3% average annual growth in 2010-2014. Exploration success is on the rise in Vietnam, with a growing number of international oil companies (IOCs) partnering PetroVietnam in finding and developing hydrocarbon resources – particularly gas. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production peaking at 400,000b/d in 2010, before easing back to 372,000b/d by 2014. Beyond 2009, consumption is forecast to increase by around 5-7% per annum to 2014, implying demand of 460,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas supply and demand is forecast to increase from the estimated 2009 figure of 11bcm to 24bcm by 2014.
Between 2009 and 2019, we are forecasting a decrease in Vietnamese oil production of 7.14%, with crude volumes peaking at 400,000b/d in 2010, before slipping to 325,000b/d by 2019. Oil consumption between 2009 and 2019 is set to increase by 78.22%, with growth beyond 2009 ranging from 5.0% to 7.0% per annum and the country using 625,000 b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to rise from an estimated 11bcm in 2009 to 27bcm in 2019. With identical demand growth, we see no potential for imports or exports during the period. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found at the end of this report, which provides regional and country-specific projections.
Vietnam still ranks second ahead of India in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating, reflecting a reasonable resource position, better-than-average growth outlook, attractive licensing terms and an IOC-friendly competitive environment. There is only a one-point gap between Vietnam and India but this could widen over future quarters. The country sits eight points behind Australia, but is capable of closing the gap. Vietnam now ranks equal ninth with Pakistan in BMI’s updated Downstream Business Environment rating, reflecting its modest (but growing) refining capacity, above-average oil and gas demand growth outlook, plus a low level of retail site intensity.
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