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Czech Republic Tourism Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, Nov 2009, Pages: 55
The Czech Republic Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, tourism associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Czech Republic's tourism industry.
Tourism Overview
Czech tourism continues to be in the doldrums. After a poor showing in the hospitality sector in H208 there was considerable deterioration in the sector for foreign tourism in Q109. The decline continued in Q209, with foreign and domestic tourism recording relatively sharp falls year-on-year (y-o-y).
Hospitality
In Q209, the number of overnight stays (foreign and domestic) totalled over 8.8mn, a fall of nearly 9% yo- y. Foreign tourism nights were down by more than 10% y-o-y and domestic residents recorded a fall of 7% compared to the same period in 2008. Regarding the number of guests, there were just over 3mn at collective accommodation establishments in Q209, down by 8.6% y-o-y, with foreign and domestic guests down by 8.7% and 8.5% y-o-y respectively. Spa accommodation establishments recorded a 6.2% y-o-y fall in the overnight stays. Foreign tourism spa nights were down by 14.6% y-o-y. Out of the top 10 source countries, only Austria recorded positive growth (just over 3% y-o-y) in the number of guests at collective accommodation establishments in Q209. The number of German guests declined by 2.4% y-o-y and the number of guests from Italy fell by 2.2% y-o-y. Poland and the UK recorded sharp falls in guest arrivals, declining by 12.8% and 21.5% y-o-y respectively.
Forecast Scenario
We maintain our forecast of a sharp fall in the number of foreign tourist arrivals in 2009 (-9% y-o-y). The number of foreign guests in the hospitality sector fell by an average of well over 10% y-o-y in the first half of 2009. The poor outlook is due to severe economic conditions in major source markets – the eurozone (especially Germany) and the UK. Slight positive growth (+1% y-o-y) in tourist arrivals is anticipated in 2010 however, and BMI anticipates a relatively strong rebound in the following year (up 5% y-o-y). Although the Czech koruna has shown an improving trend against the euro, downside risks to the currency persist. In our view, the longer-term strength of the koruna though is expected to constrain growth in arrivals from the eurozone over the forecast period.
Prague Ruzyne International Airport
Figures for the first eight months of 2009 show sharp falls in total passenger traffic at Prague Ruzyne Airport, down by over 10% compared with the same period in 2008. International traffic fell by 10.4% yo- y, but domestic passenger numbers recorded a less severe decline, falling by about 4% y-o-y. The rate of decline in international traffic did shown broad improvement later in the year. Although Prague Ruzyne was put up for privatisation by the former centre-right government, the sale looks slightly shakier than it did at the beginning of 2009, with the Czech Republic’s lower house of parliament, the Chamber of Deputies, passing a bill in September 2009 blocking the sale of the airport.
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