Hungary Tourism Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, November 2009, Pages: 58
The Hungary Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, tourism associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Hungary's tourism industry.
Tourism Overview
Following an estimated recovery in foreign tourist arrivals in 2008 – after several years of decline – edging up a modest 2% year-on-year (y-o-y) to about 9.5mn arrivals. Data for the first six months of 2009 show a reasonable increase in foreign visitor arrivals (including same-day visitors) of 5.5% y-o-y. However, same-day visitors accounted for the majority of the increase (rising by about 7% y-o-y), and the number of foreign tourist arrivals (non-residents staying at least one night) rose only marginally, by 0.7% y-o-y. Over the same period, there was positive growth in visitor arrivals from major source markets, with one exception. The number of visitors from Romania declined by 3.7% y-o-y, while arrivals from Slovakia rose by over 19% compared to H108. Arrivals from both Austria and Germany were higher by about 3% y-o-y, and the number of visitors from Serbia increased by nearly 1% y-o-y. More recent data from the hospitality sector on foreign guests, however, make poor reading.
Hospitality
Latest hospitality sector data for January-August 2009 continued to confirm a significant downturn in the sector. The number of nights spent in all accommodation establishments declined by nearly 9% y-o-y, with tourist nights accounted for by international visitors falling by more than 11% compared with the first eight months of 2008. Nights by domestic residents fell by 6% y-o-y. From the major source markets there was a very mixed picture. Tourist nights by German arrivals fell by about 11% y-o-y, while UK visitors declined by over 26% y-o-y in terms of overnight stays (following major falls at the end of 2008). Arrivals from Austria recorded an increase in nights, up by 3% y-o-y, but nights by Polish tourists were down by 9% compared with the corresponding period in 2008. Italian tourist nights fell by 4.4% y-o-y. The average occupancy rate of hotel rooms in the eight-month period was 43.7%, down by 12% y-o-y.
Forecast Scenario
Based on slightly better tourism figures than we had expected for H109, we have improved our forecast slightly for foreign tourist arrivals in 2009 as a whole and now anticipate a decline of a more modest -5% y-o-y. BMI expects the number of arrivals to stabilise broadly in 2010, although further weakness is anticipated in the longer term. Recession in Hungary’s main source markets – Romania, Slovakia and the rest of the EU (the latter accounted for 82% of total arrivals in H109) – will have a negative impact on tourism to Hungary in the short term. Following sharp weakness of the Hungarian forint at the beginning of 2009, the currency has been in an appreciatory trend against the euro since March 2009. Having revised our forecasts this quarter, the short-term outlook for the forint is encouraging. Consequently, the exchange rate against the euro is unlikely to provide stimulus for the tourism sector in the forecast period.
Malév Hungarian Airlines
In very positive news, Malév Hungarian Airlines, the country’s national carrier, recorded an increases in passenger numbers on its European network in August and September 2009, compared with same two months in 2008.
Wizz Air
In September 2009, Hungarian low-cost carrier Wizz Air launched six new routes from Wroclaw in Poland and announced that its 12th operating base will open at Copernicus Airport Wroclaw in 2010. The airline already has operating bases in Budapest (Hungary); Katowice, Warsaw, Gdansk and Poznan (Poland); Sofia (Bulgaria); Bucharest, Cluj-Napoca and Timisoara (Romania); Kiev (Ukraine); and Prague (Czech Republic).
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Hungary Tourism SWOT
Hungary Political SWOT
Hungary Economic SWOT
Hungary Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Arrivals
Table: Tourism Arrivals Data, 2005-2013 (‘000)
Accommodation
Table: Accommodation Data, 2005-2013 (‘000, unless otherwise stated)
Expenditure
Table: Expenditure Data, 2005-2013
Inbound Tourism
Table: Inbound Tourism Data – Arrival Of Tourists At National Borders, 2005-2013 (‘000)
Outbound Tourism
Table: Outbound Tourism Data – Resident Departures, 2005-2013 (‘000)
Market Overview – Travel
Commercial Airlines
Table: Key Players In The Hungarian Airline Market, 2008
Car Rental Firms
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q108-Q409 (US$/bbl)
Table: Oil Product Prices, 2007-2014 (US$/bbl)
Market Overview – Hospitality
Table: Leading Operators In Hungary’s Accommodation Sector, 2008 (unless stated)
Accommodation Developments
Infrastructure
Business Environment
Tourism Business Environment Ratings
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Tourism Business Environment Ratings
Security Business Environment Ratings
Table: Europe Regional Security Risk Ratings
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability Index
Hungary’s Security Risk Ratings
Europe Security Overview
Currency Forecasts
Table: BMI’s Hungary Currency Forecasts
Global Assumptions
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2008-2011 (%)
Table: Global Assumptions, 2008-2014
Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2008-2011 (average)
Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2008-2011 (average)
Company Profiles
Accor-Pannonia Hotels
Hilton
Danubius Hotel And Spa
Malév Hungarian Airlines
Wizz Air
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Tourism Industry
Tourism Business Environment Ratings
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators
Table: Weighting of Components
Sources
- Accor-Pannonia Hotels
- Hilton
- Danubius Hotel And Spa
- Malév Hungarian Airlines
- Wizz Air
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