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Report on Analysis and Forecast of China Cotton Market (2009-2010)
Beijing Shennong Kexin Agribusiness Consulting Co.,Ltd., Jan 2010, Pages: 84
The main characteristics of China’s cotton market in 2009 are as follows:
(1) The cotton market is driven by policies in 2009. When a large number of new cotton came into the market in 2008, the huge amount of cotton purchased by the government resulted in the tight cotton supply in 2008/2009, market resources and especially the high-grade cotton declined, and cotton prices continued to rise. In order to stabilize the cotton market, guarantee the market supply, and meet the needs of textile enterprises, the state decided to auction 1.5 million tons of reserve cotton. Impacted by the continuous rain, the time for coming into the market has been delayed when the first batch sale of reserves will be finished. The state issued the second batch of 0.6 million tons cotton reserves. With cotton inventories being depleted, textile enterprises future deepen the dependence on national reserve cotton, auction has become a dominant factor affecting the cotton market.
(2) The significant decline in China’s cotton production in 2009. The planting acreage in major cotton producing regions sharply decreased in 2009 as the production value was lower than production cost. Meanwhile, affected by adverse weather conditions, cotton yield declined. Cotton production in 2009 is estimated at 6.78 million MT, down by 15% from 2008.
(3) Cotton imports recorded the biggest drop in 10 years. Limiting the allocation of import quotas, the government controlled cotton imports effectively. The government only allocated tariff quotas of 0.894 million MT, and the succeeding processing trade quotas of 0.4 million MT. Cotton imports in 2009 fell sharply, the biggest drop since 2000.
(4) Cotton consumption slowly recovered. Production and export of textile industry gradually rebounded, cotton consumption slowly recovered, driven by the global revival in the consumption and the domestic demand.
How will change occur in China’s cotton market in 2009/2010? This report provides a detailed analysis of cotton industry policies, the cotton production and trade, economic situations of textile industry, cotton prices and supply-demand balance, etc, in 2008/2009. And also forecasts changes of cotton market in 2009/2010.
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