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Hong Kong Oil and Gas Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, Nov 2009, Pages: 57
Hong Kong Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Hong Kong's oil and gas industry.
The latest Hong Kong Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for just 1.17% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2014, while making no contribution to supply. Asia Pacific regional oil use of 21.40mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 25.44mn b/d in 2009. It should average 25.93mn b/d in 2010, then rise to around 28.99mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was just under 8.41mn b/d in 2001, and averaged an estimated 8.50mn b/d in 2009. It is set to increase to 8.59mn b/d by 2014. In 2001, the region was importing an average 12.99mn b/d of oil. This total had risen to an estimated 16.94mn b/d in 2009, and is forecast to reach 20.41mn b/d by 2014. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2014, the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
In terms of natural gas, in 2009 the region consumed an estimated 459bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 582bcm is targeted for 2014. Production of an estimated 378bcm in 2009 should reach 509bcm in 2014, but implies net imports easing from an estimated 81bcm in 2009 to 73bcm in 2013. This is in spite of many Asian gas producers being major exporters. Hong Kong’s share of consumption in 2009 was an estimated 0.59%, while it has no production. By 2014, its share of demand is forecast to be 0.61%..
For 2009 as a whole, we have assumed an average OPEC basket price of US$59.00 per barrel (bbl), a 37.3% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). This represents an upgrade from the US$55.00/bbl forecast we were using in the previous quarter. For 2010, we expect to see a significant oil price recovery to US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to US$85.00/bbl in 2011 and to US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond.
For 2009, the authors have assumed a global average gasoline price of US$67.46/bbl, with the fuel having peaked in June at almost US$80.00/bbl. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 33.7%.
The gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$70.59/bbl, assuming a monthly high above US$94/bbl in December 2009. The full-year outturn represents a 41.8% y-o-y fall. The annual jet price level for 2009 is estimated at US$68.45/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008. The 2009 average naphtha price is put at US$52.66/bbl, down 39.7% from the previous year’s level.
Hong Kong’s real GDP growth is estimated to have contracted by 3.0% in 2009, compared with growth of 2.4% in 2008. We are assuming average annual growth of 4.6% between 2010 and 2014. There is no upstream or refining segment, but international oil companies (IOCs) and Chinese companies are investing in import and distribution facilities. Oil consumption is forecast to increase by 2-3% per annum to 2014, implying demand of 339,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas demand is set to reach 3.5bcm by 2014, with all of the fuel imported.
Between 2009 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Hong Kong oil consumption of 29.19%, with demand reaching 375,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. Oil consumption growth slows to an assumed 2.0% per annum towards the end of the period. Gas demand growth of 70.81% provides an import requirement rising to 4.6bcm by 2019. Details of the 10-year forecasts can be found at the end of this report, which provides regional and country-specific projections.
Hong Kong now ranks equal 10th in the updated Upstream Business Environment rating, alongside Singapore and Japan. The poor showing reflects the absence of domestic hydrocarbons. The risk environment is much more attractive than for many Asian peers, but there are no opportunities for IOCs in the upstream segment. Hong Kong is now ranked 12th in the Downstream Business Environment rating, above only Taiwan and Malaysia, reflecting its status as a very small energy market with few investment opportunities available. It beats its nearest rivals due to its low risk profile.
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